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<p>The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is a key region for China’s economic development, and the analysis of industrial carbon emissions is crucial to achieving the national carbon neutrality goal. Our study scrutinises the industrial carbon emissions of 11 provinces within the YREB from 1997 to 2021, emphasising factor decomposition, decoupling efforts, and mitigation pathways. The main findings of this study are as follows. (1) Total industrial carbon emissions in the YREB rose from 910.89 Mt in 1997 to 3010.01 Mt by 2021, with Jiangsu and Zhejiang leading in emissions. (2) Using the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM), we found that the impacts of various factors on industrial carbon emissions change dynamically, industrial fixed asset investment and research and development (R&amp;D) carbon intensity emerge as the principal drivers promoting and inhibiting industrial carbon emissions across provinces, respectively. (3) The decoupling effort model reveals significant spatial and temporal variations in the total decoupling effort indices across provinces. Regarding specific decoupling indicators, investment and R&amp;D carbon intensity demonstrated decoupling efforts for industrial carbon emissions in most provinces, while energy consumption carbon intensity exhibited stable weak decoupling efforts only in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. (4) Employing hierarchical clustering based on the decomposition and decoupling results, we categorised the 11 provinces into four distinct regional groups. This clustering forms the basis for proposing tailored, group-specific carbon mitigation strategies (addressing industrial structure, R&amp;D, investment, and consumption) adapted to local conditions, providing practical policy recommendations for the YREB and insights potentially adaptable for other developing economies.</p>

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Scrutinising the industrial carbon emissions of China’s Yangtze river economic belt: decoupling efforts and mitigation pathways

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月13日

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  • Liu Chen,
  • Haixiang Feng,
  • Xiaofeng Gao,
  • Kaijian Li,
  • Luping Qin,
  • Kun Zhou

摘要

The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is a key region for China’s economic development, and the analysis of industrial carbon emissions is crucial to achieving the national carbon neutrality goal. Our study scrutinises the industrial carbon emissions of 11 provinces within the YREB from 1997 to 2021, emphasising factor decomposition, decoupling efforts, and mitigation pathways. The main findings of this study are as follows. (1) Total industrial carbon emissions in the YREB rose from 910.89 Mt in 1997 to 3010.01 Mt by 2021, with Jiangsu and Zhejiang leading in emissions. (2) Using the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM), we found that the impacts of various factors on industrial carbon emissions change dynamically, industrial fixed asset investment and research and development (R&D) carbon intensity emerge as the principal drivers promoting and inhibiting industrial carbon emissions across provinces, respectively. (3) The decoupling effort model reveals significant spatial and temporal variations in the total decoupling effort indices across provinces. Regarding specific decoupling indicators, investment and R&D carbon intensity demonstrated decoupling efforts for industrial carbon emissions in most provinces, while energy consumption carbon intensity exhibited stable weak decoupling efforts only in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. (4) Employing hierarchical clustering based on the decomposition and decoupling results, we categorised the 11 provinces into four distinct regional groups. This clustering forms the basis for proposing tailored, group-specific carbon mitigation strategies (addressing industrial structure, R&D, investment, and consumption) adapted to local conditions, providing practical policy recommendations for the YREB and insights potentially adaptable for other developing economies.