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<p>As a major contributor to carbon emissions, the construction sector plays a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality. However, existing research at the urban scale remains inadequate in identifying the driving factors of building carbon emissions, making it challenging to fully capture regional variations and multidimensional driving characteristics. The study introduces a Comprehensive-Lifecycle-Integration approach for building carbon accounting and accurately quantify the emissions for 291 Chinese cities from 2008 to 2020. Given the diversity and differentiation in urban development pathways, cities in different regions exhibit significant variations in building carbon emissions. To address this, this study categorizes these cities into seven regions and employs a random forest approach to identify the key driving factors of building carbon emissions in each region, based on 30 variables across seven dimensions: population, economy, spatial characteristics, society, energy, environment, and climate. The findings indicate that building carbon emissions of 291 cities are characterized by uneven distribution, with 20.78% of overall emissions coming from the top 10 cities. The analysis of driving factors further reveals that regional differences significantly impact the core influencing factors of building carbon emissions. The effects of building energy structure on carbon emissions exhibit regional variability. Although the core influencing factors differ across regions, urbanization processes and spatial layout significantly impact building carbon emissions in multiple regions.</p>

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Carbon emissions and regional differences of Chinese urban buildings under multi-dimensional key influencing factor identification

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月11日

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  • Juan Li,
  • Mei Sun,
  • Lixin Tian

摘要

As a major contributor to carbon emissions, the construction sector plays a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality. However, existing research at the urban scale remains inadequate in identifying the driving factors of building carbon emissions, making it challenging to fully capture regional variations and multidimensional driving characteristics. The study introduces a Comprehensive-Lifecycle-Integration approach for building carbon accounting and accurately quantify the emissions for 291 Chinese cities from 2008 to 2020. Given the diversity and differentiation in urban development pathways, cities in different regions exhibit significant variations in building carbon emissions. To address this, this study categorizes these cities into seven regions and employs a random forest approach to identify the key driving factors of building carbon emissions in each region, based on 30 variables across seven dimensions: population, economy, spatial characteristics, society, energy, environment, and climate. The findings indicate that building carbon emissions of 291 cities are characterized by uneven distribution, with 20.78% of overall emissions coming from the top 10 cities. The analysis of driving factors further reveals that regional differences significantly impact the core influencing factors of building carbon emissions. The effects of building energy structure on carbon emissions exhibit regional variability. Although the core influencing factors differ across regions, urbanization processes and spatial layout significantly impact building carbon emissions in multiple regions.