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<p>China faces a critical water crisis, with 90% of groundwater and 70% of surface water polluted, especially in the YREB. Thus, we relied on a nonparametric approach on panel data from 32 YREB cities (2009–2020) to investigate how industrial pollution and economic-institutional factors nonlinearly drive green innovation. We identify threshold effects in pollution-innovation dynamics: moderate industrial chemical oxygen demand (COD) levels (1.2–1.8 ten thousand tons/year) stimulate green innovation (β = 0.419, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), whereas excessive COD (&gt; 2.1 ten thousand tons/year) suppresses it. The River Chief System amplifies this relationship through vertical/horizontal governance integration (addressing "nine dragons" fragmentation) and industrial water use reduction (64.12% of China's total). Economic factors (GDP elasticity = 1.306) and science expenditures (3.9 × stronger than R&amp;D personnel effects) synergistically enhance innovation, particularly in cities with advanced wastewater treatment. Our results validate Porter's Hypothesis in developing economies and provide actionable thresholds: combining 18–22% COD reduction with 2.1–2.4% GDP R&amp;D investment maximises green patent outputs.</p>

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Balancing industrial pollution and progress: nonlinear drivers of green innovation in China's Yangtze river economic belt (YREB)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月3日

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  • Liu Guijian,
  • Peiwei Sun,
  • Sumran Ali,
  • Peng Xiaobao,
  • Tariq Habib Khan

摘要

China faces a critical water crisis, with 90% of groundwater and 70% of surface water polluted, especially in the YREB. Thus, we relied on a nonparametric approach on panel data from 32 YREB cities (2009–2020) to investigate how industrial pollution and economic-institutional factors nonlinearly drive green innovation. We identify threshold effects in pollution-innovation dynamics: moderate industrial chemical oxygen demand (COD) levels (1.2–1.8 ten thousand tons/year) stimulate green innovation (β = 0.419, p < 0.001), whereas excessive COD (> 2.1 ten thousand tons/year) suppresses it. The River Chief System amplifies this relationship through vertical/horizontal governance integration (addressing "nine dragons" fragmentation) and industrial water use reduction (64.12% of China's total). Economic factors (GDP elasticity = 1.306) and science expenditures (3.9 × stronger than R&D personnel effects) synergistically enhance innovation, particularly in cities with advanced wastewater treatment. Our results validate Porter's Hypothesis in developing economies and provide actionable thresholds: combining 18–22% COD reduction with 2.1–2.4% GDP R&D investment maximises green patent outputs.