<p>The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the third pole of the Earth and is strongly responsive and sensitive to global climate change. The main reasons for exacerbating global climate change are CO₂ emissions caused by human activities. Buildings are important carriers of human activities in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, the driving factors and changing trends of CO₂ emissions in the building sector are ambiguous, which has led to a lack of research support for CO₂ emissions reduction in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and other ecologically fragile areas. This study developed a model and applied STIRPAT, ridge regression, and scenario prediction to identify historical CO₂ emissions, driving factors, and CO₂ emissions predictions from the building sector in Qinghai Province. The key findings were: Population, non-agriculturalization, population aging, GDP per capita, squared term of GDP per capita, and cement consumption were positively correlated with CO₂ emissions in the building sector on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In contrast, improvements in energy structure could reduce emissions. The predictions showed that peak CO₂ emissions in the building sector could be achieved by 2027 by taking the most effective measures to optimize the energy structure and adopt new low-carbon cement technologies. It will provide an effective reference for CO₂ emissions reduction in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and other ecologically fragile areas.</p>