<p>Achieving carbon neutrality is a strategic priority for China amid mounting climate challenges. This study focuses on Henan Province, a major energy-consuming and populous region, to investigate its carbon neutrality gap. Using panel data from 18 cities between 2005 and 2020, we apply spatial statistical analysis, the Gini coefficient, and the Geographical Detector method to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics, regional disparities, and key driving factors of the carbon neutrality gap. The main findings are as follows. First, the NEP values are higher in the western and southern regions, while lower in the northern and central regions. During the study period, the carbon emissions of Henan Province showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. Second, there are significant spatial disparities in the carbon neutrality gap across cities in Henan Province, with cities dominated by traditional industries exhibiting larger gaps. In addition, the study reveals that the carbon neutrality gap shows a certain degree of spatial spillover effect. Third, energy consumption and industrial water use are the primary drivers of Henan’s carbon neutrality gap. However, their influence has gradually declined, indicating substantial potential for optimizing the structure of industrial energy and water use. This research provides a scientific basis for the carbon neutrality path in Henan Province and similar regions.</p>