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<p>Indonesia has abundant geothermal resources, prompting investigations into the feasibility of Geothermal Power Plants (GPP) for cleaner energy production. Despite GPP offering lower operational costs associated with reliable baseload generation, the initial investment remains high compared to other renewable energy options. Accordingly, this study uses system dynamics models to explore the economic and environmental viability of GPP development in Indonesia. The projected impact of developing a new GPP can be estimated by simulating the existing conditions and possible scenarios through the structure change of a validated model. Evaluating the feasibility of the GPP development requires analyzing both economic (e.g., potential return on investment (ROI)) and environmental aspects (e.g., potential carbon emissions reductions). Our findings suggest that a strategic and gradual increase in electricity tariffs, with a target of up to 15%, could improve cash flow and potentially increase ROI by an average of over 7% by 2035. Additionally, GPP development offers significant environmental benefits. The potential for carbon reduction using GPP compared to coal fuel power plants is projected to reach 4.7&#xa0;million metric tons in 2040. Therefore, the potential for carbon credit is projected to reach USD 21.21&#xa0;million in 2040. Meanwhile, given geothermal potential and high electricity demand in Java and Sumatra, these regions present promising locations for future GPP expansion projects. Finally, this study suggests that combining strategic gradual tariff adjustments and appropriate GPP development could lead to a cleaner, more economical, sustainable energy future in Indonesia.</p>

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Exploring the viability of geothermal power plant development in Indonesia from economic and environmental perspectives

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月25日

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  • Erma Suryani,
  • Rully Agus Hendrawan,
  • Philip Faster Eka Adipraja,
  • Mudjahidin,
  • Alifia Az-Zahra,
  • Shuo-Yan Chou,
  • Anindhita Dewabharata,
  • Zakka Ugih Rizqi

摘要

Indonesia has abundant geothermal resources, prompting investigations into the feasibility of Geothermal Power Plants (GPP) for cleaner energy production. Despite GPP offering lower operational costs associated with reliable baseload generation, the initial investment remains high compared to other renewable energy options. Accordingly, this study uses system dynamics models to explore the economic and environmental viability of GPP development in Indonesia. The projected impact of developing a new GPP can be estimated by simulating the existing conditions and possible scenarios through the structure change of a validated model. Evaluating the feasibility of the GPP development requires analyzing both economic (e.g., potential return on investment (ROI)) and environmental aspects (e.g., potential carbon emissions reductions). Our findings suggest that a strategic and gradual increase in electricity tariffs, with a target of up to 15%, could improve cash flow and potentially increase ROI by an average of over 7% by 2035. Additionally, GPP development offers significant environmental benefits. The potential for carbon reduction using GPP compared to coal fuel power plants is projected to reach 4.7 million metric tons in 2040. Therefore, the potential for carbon credit is projected to reach USD 21.21 million in 2040. Meanwhile, given geothermal potential and high electricity demand in Java and Sumatra, these regions present promising locations for future GPP expansion projects. Finally, this study suggests that combining strategic gradual tariff adjustments and appropriate GPP development could lead to a cleaner, more economical, sustainable energy future in Indonesia.