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<p>This study focuses on the Hunan-Jiangxi Border Area (HJBA), and the coordinated development of land use change (LUC) and habitat quality (HQ) and its significance for regional sustainable development&#xa0;are investigated. Using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, the evolution of land use patterns in the HJBA by 2030 and 2050&#xa0;was simulated&#xa0;under three scenarios. From 2000 to 2050, the spatiotemporal patterns of LUC were analyzed through the utilization of the land use intensity (LUI) index, and the&#xa0;HQ was quantified by the InVEST model, the coupling relationship between LUI and HQ was evaluated through the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. An interpretable machine learning method (XGBoost-SHAP) was subsequently&#xa0;applied to reveal the factors influencing the CCD level. The results showed that (1) during the 2000–2020 period, HQ showed a spatial pattern of high values&#xa0;in the south and low&#xa0;values in the north, and presented a downward trend, with excellent level HQ dominating and concentrated in the mountainous areas. HQ was projected to deteriorate under&#xa0;the natural growth scenario (NGS) and urban growth scenario (UGS) but was&#xa0;projected to improve under the ecological protection scenario (EPS). (2) The LUI values steadily increased from 2000 to 2020, showing a distinct pattern of strong activity in the central&#xa0;region and decreasing intensity towards the periphery. The change in the LUI&#xa0;value was opposite to that in the HQ value under each scenario. (3) The CCD showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2020, the NGS and UGS could promote an increase of coupling coordination degree, whereas the EPS could facilitate no significant change. In 2050, the CCD level was projected to change nonlinearly under all scenarios, with a decline observed in all cases. (4) SHAP value analysis showed that population (POP) and gross domestic product (GDP) were the most important factors affecting the&#xa0;CCD&#xa0;level, and an increase&#xa0;in the POP and GDP promoted an increase in the CCD When POP and GDP exceeded certain thresholds, further increases resulted in&#xa0;CCD stabilization. This study revealed the complex relationship between LUC and HQ through&#xa0;the PLUS-InVEST-CCD framework, and clarified the key role of socioeconomic factors in&#xa0;driving their coordinated development. The research results provide a scientific basis and policy recommendations for ecological-environmental management and land use coordination in border mountainous areas, and provide a new perspective and methodological reference for sustainable development in such areas.</p>

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Coordinated development of land use change and habitat quality in the border mountainous area of China: A multi-scenario perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月9日

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  • Wenqiang Wan,
  • Xinmin Zhang,
  • Xiao Zhou,
  • Tiangui Lv,
  • Guoliang Xu,
  • Shuai Fu

摘要

This study focuses on the Hunan-Jiangxi Border Area (HJBA), and the coordinated development of land use change (LUC) and habitat quality (HQ) and its significance for regional sustainable development are investigated. Using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, the evolution of land use patterns in the HJBA by 2030 and 2050 was simulated under three scenarios. From 2000 to 2050, the spatiotemporal patterns of LUC were analyzed through the utilization of the land use intensity (LUI) index, and the HQ was quantified by the InVEST model, the coupling relationship between LUI and HQ was evaluated through the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. An interpretable machine learning method (XGBoost-SHAP) was subsequently applied to reveal the factors influencing the CCD level. The results showed that (1) during the 2000–2020 period, HQ showed a spatial pattern of high values in the south and low values in the north, and presented a downward trend, with excellent level HQ dominating and concentrated in the mountainous areas. HQ was projected to deteriorate under the natural growth scenario (NGS) and urban growth scenario (UGS) but was projected to improve under the ecological protection scenario (EPS). (2) The LUI values steadily increased from 2000 to 2020, showing a distinct pattern of strong activity in the central region and decreasing intensity towards the periphery. The change in the LUI value was opposite to that in the HQ value under each scenario. (3) The CCD showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2020, the NGS and UGS could promote an increase of coupling coordination degree, whereas the EPS could facilitate no significant change. In 2050, the CCD level was projected to change nonlinearly under all scenarios, with a decline observed in all cases. (4) SHAP value analysis showed that population (POP) and gross domestic product (GDP) were the most important factors affecting the CCD level, and an increase in the POP and GDP promoted an increase in the CCD When POP and GDP exceeded certain thresholds, further increases resulted in CCD stabilization. This study revealed the complex relationship between LUC and HQ through the PLUS-InVEST-CCD framework, and clarified the key role of socioeconomic factors in driving their coordinated development. The research results provide a scientific basis and policy recommendations for ecological-environmental management and land use coordination in border mountainous areas, and provide a new perspective and methodological reference for sustainable development in such areas.