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<p>Economic and environmental pressures introduce substantial uncertainty into low-carbon development (LCD), while digital technology innovation (DTI) emerges as a novel pathway for LCD, leading to its widespread adoption in cities. Nevertheless, the immediate and sustained effects of DTI on LCD remain unclear. Using urban data from China covering the period 2008–2021, this paper investigates both short- and long-term effects of DTI on LCD, as well as their spatial spillovers and heterogeneous causal effects, by employing the two-way fixed effects model, the Spatial Durbin model and the partially linear functional coefficient model. The key findings are threefold. (1) The short- and long-term DTI are becoming increasingly important drivers for LCD. Specifically, the long‑term effects of DTI are most pronounced in non‑resource‑based and lower‑tier cities, whereas short‑term DTI exerts a stronger influence in non-resource-based and higher-tier cities. (2) DTI generates negative spillover effects on LCD in neighboring cities, with long‑term DTI exhibiting particularly strong adverse spatial spillovers. (3) The linear and non-linear moderating effects of informatization level (IL) and government R&amp;D expenditure (GRE) exist on the LCD impact of DTI, while IL consistently strengthens the effect of DTI and GRE shows a more complex pattern. The findings highlight the need for targeted policies with time- and region-specific considerations, which utilize DTI, informatization, and R&amp;D investment to advance LCD.</p>

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A digital path towards low-carbon development: the role of short- and long-term digital technology innovation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月22日

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  • Linrong You,
  • Hui Zhao,
  • Zhide Jiang,
  • Ao Lei

摘要

Economic and environmental pressures introduce substantial uncertainty into low-carbon development (LCD), while digital technology innovation (DTI) emerges as a novel pathway for LCD, leading to its widespread adoption in cities. Nevertheless, the immediate and sustained effects of DTI on LCD remain unclear. Using urban data from China covering the period 2008–2021, this paper investigates both short- and long-term effects of DTI on LCD, as well as their spatial spillovers and heterogeneous causal effects, by employing the two-way fixed effects model, the Spatial Durbin model and the partially linear functional coefficient model. The key findings are threefold. (1) The short- and long-term DTI are becoming increasingly important drivers for LCD. Specifically, the long‑term effects of DTI are most pronounced in non‑resource‑based and lower‑tier cities, whereas short‑term DTI exerts a stronger influence in non-resource-based and higher-tier cities. (2) DTI generates negative spillover effects on LCD in neighboring cities, with long‑term DTI exhibiting particularly strong adverse spatial spillovers. (3) The linear and non-linear moderating effects of informatization level (IL) and government R&D expenditure (GRE) exist on the LCD impact of DTI, while IL consistently strengthens the effect of DTI and GRE shows a more complex pattern. The findings highlight the need for targeted policies with time- and region-specific considerations, which utilize DTI, informatization, and R&D investment to advance LCD.