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<p>Improving the energy efficiency (EE) of thermal power plants is critical for achieving carbon neutrality in China. This work aims to simulate the long-term and regional energy efficiency and CO<sub>2</sub> reduction potential (CRP) of the thermal power sector for 30 provinces/municipalities of China under various socioeconomic conditions by using the Windows DEA method. The results showed that developed regions achieved concentrated EE scores above 0.9, whereas developing and less developed regions exhibited relatively lower scores, ranging from 0.71 to 0.86. This highlights a clear disparity, with developed provinces demonstrating higher energy efficiency compared to less developed ones. Further, the total CRP for 30 provinces/municipalities in 2060 was predicted to be 0.88, 0.85 and 0.75 billion t-CO<sub>2</sub> under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3 scenarios, respectively. These estimates suggest that upgrading low-efficiency plants to the best-performing levels could reduce approximately 24.0%, 23.2%, 20.5% of the total CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from China’s electricity sector. All these results clearly suggest that China’s thermal power sector has tremendous potential to mitigate CO<sub>2</sub> through technological advancement for realizing China’s carbon neutrality goal by 2060.</p>

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Assessment of CO2 emissions reduction potential in china’s thermal power sector to 2060: empirical evidence from a windows DEA model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月8日

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  • Lu Gao,
  • Xiangbiao Yin,
  • Tian Xie,
  • Caiping Zhang,
  • Qian Zhou,
  • Yanhong Feng,
  • Shuichi Ashina

摘要

Improving the energy efficiency (EE) of thermal power plants is critical for achieving carbon neutrality in China. This work aims to simulate the long-term and regional energy efficiency and CO2 reduction potential (CRP) of the thermal power sector for 30 provinces/municipalities of China under various socioeconomic conditions by using the Windows DEA method. The results showed that developed regions achieved concentrated EE scores above 0.9, whereas developing and less developed regions exhibited relatively lower scores, ranging from 0.71 to 0.86. This highlights a clear disparity, with developed provinces demonstrating higher energy efficiency compared to less developed ones. Further, the total CRP for 30 provinces/municipalities in 2060 was predicted to be 0.88, 0.85 and 0.75 billion t-CO2 under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3 scenarios, respectively. These estimates suggest that upgrading low-efficiency plants to the best-performing levels could reduce approximately 24.0%, 23.2%, 20.5% of the total CO2 emissions from China’s electricity sector. All these results clearly suggest that China’s thermal power sector has tremendous potential to mitigate CO2 through technological advancement for realizing China’s carbon neutrality goal by 2060.