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<p>Comprehensively clarifying the dynamic evolution of the economic-energy-environmental (3E) system coordination and carbon emissions (CEs) is of great significance for achieving the “dual-carbon” goal. Therefore, we established a coupled coordination degree model, a spatial Durbin model, and a decoupling index model to empirically examine the levels of synergy in the 3E system, as well as the carbon spillover and decoupling effects. The results indicate that the levels of 3E system synergy and CEs across 31 provinces in China exhibit a fluctuating upward trend. The Moran’s I value reveals a significant positive correlation between 3E system synergy and CEs. Specifically, the 3E system synergy transitions from an ‘L-L’ type to an ‘H–H’ type, while CEs shift from an ‘H–H’ type to an ‘L-L’ type. The 3E system synergy has significant direct and indirect effects on CE reduction, with every 1% reduction in CEs from neighboring cities corresponding to a 0.246% reduction in local CEs. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the 3E system synergy in eastern versus western cities and resource cities significantly influences CE reduction. The re-test of the decoupled index model validates the findings from the spatial econometric model. Moving forward, it is crucial to incentivize urban CE reductions from synergistic perspectives encompassing economic, energy, and environmental dimensions.</p>

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Examining the carbon spillover effect of the economy–energy–environment system synergy: a validation based on panel data from 31 Provinces in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月6日

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  • Hongfei Chen,
  • Dongxiao Niu,
  • Xiaodan Zhang

摘要

Comprehensively clarifying the dynamic evolution of the economic-energy-environmental (3E) system coordination and carbon emissions (CEs) is of great significance for achieving the “dual-carbon” goal. Therefore, we established a coupled coordination degree model, a spatial Durbin model, and a decoupling index model to empirically examine the levels of synergy in the 3E system, as well as the carbon spillover and decoupling effects. The results indicate that the levels of 3E system synergy and CEs across 31 provinces in China exhibit a fluctuating upward trend. The Moran’s I value reveals a significant positive correlation between 3E system synergy and CEs. Specifically, the 3E system synergy transitions from an ‘L-L’ type to an ‘H–H’ type, while CEs shift from an ‘H–H’ type to an ‘L-L’ type. The 3E system synergy has significant direct and indirect effects on CE reduction, with every 1% reduction in CEs from neighboring cities corresponding to a 0.246% reduction in local CEs. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the 3E system synergy in eastern versus western cities and resource cities significantly influences CE reduction. The re-test of the decoupled index model validates the findings from the spatial econometric model. Moving forward, it is crucial to incentivize urban CE reductions from synergistic perspectives encompassing economic, energy, and environmental dimensions.