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<p>Evaluating the evolution of ecological protection policies implemented in the upstream Qiantang River Basin for coordinated river basin development provides critical insights for policy optimization and sustainable governance. To accomplish this, the Qiantang River Basin EES indicator system was constructed, and the coordinated development degree model, exploratory spatial data analysis model, and spatial Durbin model were applied using data collected from 12 counties in the Qiantang River Basin between 2006 and 2022. The results indicated that: (1) The coupling coordination degree of the EES systems in the Qiantang River Basin has gradually improved with the evolution of ecological protection policies in the upstream area. The spatial layout shows a pattern where the coupling coordination degree goes from small to large in a sequence of “upstream area - midstream area - downstream area”. (2) Significant positive spatial autocorrelation emerged, with hotspots concentrating downstream as upstream policies advanced; (3) Positive spatial spillover effects exist in all three phases of policy implementation in the upstream area of the Qiantang River compared to areas without ecological protection policies. The third phase (2018–2022) exhibits the most significant positive spillover effect, particularly in terms of economic development, population density, and industrial structure optimization. The findings propose establishing cross-sector collaboration mechanisms with ecological compensation frameworks, strengthening regional cooperation, promoting central city-driven development to stimulate adjacent areas, and optimizing industrial structures through green industries and high-tech clusters.</p>

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The impact of ecological protection policies evolution on spatial-temporal changes: evidence from Qiantang River Basin, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月17日

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  • Zhen Zhu,
  • Licheng Wang,
  • Danting Wang,
  • Jun Yang,
  • Fangting Xie

摘要

Evaluating the evolution of ecological protection policies implemented in the upstream Qiantang River Basin for coordinated river basin development provides critical insights for policy optimization and sustainable governance. To accomplish this, the Qiantang River Basin EES indicator system was constructed, and the coordinated development degree model, exploratory spatial data analysis model, and spatial Durbin model were applied using data collected from 12 counties in the Qiantang River Basin between 2006 and 2022. The results indicated that: (1) The coupling coordination degree of the EES systems in the Qiantang River Basin has gradually improved with the evolution of ecological protection policies in the upstream area. The spatial layout shows a pattern where the coupling coordination degree goes from small to large in a sequence of “upstream area - midstream area - downstream area”. (2) Significant positive spatial autocorrelation emerged, with hotspots concentrating downstream as upstream policies advanced; (3) Positive spatial spillover effects exist in all three phases of policy implementation in the upstream area of the Qiantang River compared to areas without ecological protection policies. The third phase (2018–2022) exhibits the most significant positive spillover effect, particularly in terms of economic development, population density, and industrial structure optimization. The findings propose establishing cross-sector collaboration mechanisms with ecological compensation frameworks, strengthening regional cooperation, promoting central city-driven development to stimulate adjacent areas, and optimizing industrial structures through green industries and high-tech clusters.