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<p>Despite many nations aiming to strengthen their tourism industries for sustainable GDP growth, climate change poses multifaceted challenges across sectors. Climate-resilient development, which integrates climate adaptation and mitigation into sustainable decision-making, lacks clear conceptualization within the tourism industry in many countries. This paper explores how shifting rainfall patterns impact rural tourism carrying capacity in Fujian Province through time series analysis. Using the Entropy Method and Wavelet Analysis, the study reveals a significant correlation between changing rainfall patterns and rural tourism capacity. Rising global temperatures alter environmental characteristics, affecting ecological capacities and leading to the loss of natural attractions, disruptions to tourism seasons, and shifts in tourist preferences. Conversely, some areas experience increased appeal due to climate change, presenting emerging ecological attractions. As efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C by the end of the century continue, the findings highlight the need for intensified efforts within the tourism industry to adapt to climate-resilient development strategies. This study contributes to existing knowledge by testing CRD theory and establishing an evaluation index system for rural tourism carrying capacity, demonstrating the adverse effects of precipitation fluctuations. The findings inform policies that guide rural tourism toward sustainable community development and have implications for multilateral negotiations.</p>

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Assessing the effects of altered rainfall patterns on the carrying capacity of rural tourism in Fujian Province, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月17日

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  • Guanghui Wang,
  • Mohammad Javad Maghsoodi Tilaki,
  • Sharifah R. S. Dawood

摘要

Despite many nations aiming to strengthen their tourism industries for sustainable GDP growth, climate change poses multifaceted challenges across sectors. Climate-resilient development, which integrates climate adaptation and mitigation into sustainable decision-making, lacks clear conceptualization within the tourism industry in many countries. This paper explores how shifting rainfall patterns impact rural tourism carrying capacity in Fujian Province through time series analysis. Using the Entropy Method and Wavelet Analysis, the study reveals a significant correlation between changing rainfall patterns and rural tourism capacity. Rising global temperatures alter environmental characteristics, affecting ecological capacities and leading to the loss of natural attractions, disruptions to tourism seasons, and shifts in tourist preferences. Conversely, some areas experience increased appeal due to climate change, presenting emerging ecological attractions. As efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C by the end of the century continue, the findings highlight the need for intensified efforts within the tourism industry to adapt to climate-resilient development strategies. This study contributes to existing knowledge by testing CRD theory and establishing an evaluation index system for rural tourism carrying capacity, demonstrating the adverse effects of precipitation fluctuations. The findings inform policies that guide rural tourism toward sustainable community development and have implications for multilateral negotiations.