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<p>Climate change and human activities are major contributors to water shortages and hydrological instability. Identifying their relative impacts is crucial for sustainable water management. Water shortages emerge due to significant deviations from normal hydrological conditions, influenced by both climate change and human activities. Despite the evident role of human activities, some water managers primarily attribute water shortages to climate change, underestimating their own influence on water resources. This study presents an integrated assessment using a non-stationary approach in the Pelasjan River Basin, Iran. The Mann-Kendall method was employed to analyze trends in runoff, precipitation, and evapotranspiration, revealing a significant change point in streamflow after 1995. A heuristic segmentation method and the abcd hydrological model were used to reconstruct the natural runoff and quantify human-induced changes. Additionally, the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI<sub>NS</sub>) was developed using GAMLSS to assess water shortages across different time scales. Results indicate that climate change contributed 25–46%, while human activities accounted for 54–75% of the decline in river runoff. Seasonal analysis revealed nearly equal impacts in autumn and winter, whereas human activities had a dominant effect in summer and spring. Long-term analysis (biannual &amp; annual scales) highlighted worsening water shortages due to anthropogenic stresses.</p><p>To mitigate human-induced impacts, three water management scenarios were evaluated: (1) replacing traditional crops like wheat and barley with alternative crops, (2) maintaining wheat and barley while improving water efficiency, and (3) substituting potatoes for other crops and enhancing irrigation productivity. These strategies aim to optimize water consumption in agriculture, the primary consumer of water resources. These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive and sustainable water management policies to mitigate human-induced stresses and enhance resilience against climate change in water-scarce regions.</p>

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Integrated assessment of the effects of climate change and anthropogenic stresses on water shortage using non-stationary approach in the Pelasjan River Basin, Iran

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月12日

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  • Mohamad Heydari Rasoulabadi,
  • Hamid R. Safavi

摘要

Climate change and human activities are major contributors to water shortages and hydrological instability. Identifying their relative impacts is crucial for sustainable water management. Water shortages emerge due to significant deviations from normal hydrological conditions, influenced by both climate change and human activities. Despite the evident role of human activities, some water managers primarily attribute water shortages to climate change, underestimating their own influence on water resources. This study presents an integrated assessment using a non-stationary approach in the Pelasjan River Basin, Iran. The Mann-Kendall method was employed to analyze trends in runoff, precipitation, and evapotranspiration, revealing a significant change point in streamflow after 1995. A heuristic segmentation method and the abcd hydrological model were used to reconstruct the natural runoff and quantify human-induced changes. Additionally, the Standardized Runoff Index (SRINS) was developed using GAMLSS to assess water shortages across different time scales. Results indicate that climate change contributed 25–46%, while human activities accounted for 54–75% of the decline in river runoff. Seasonal analysis revealed nearly equal impacts in autumn and winter, whereas human activities had a dominant effect in summer and spring. Long-term analysis (biannual & annual scales) highlighted worsening water shortages due to anthropogenic stresses.

To mitigate human-induced impacts, three water management scenarios were evaluated: (1) replacing traditional crops like wheat and barley with alternative crops, (2) maintaining wheat and barley while improving water efficiency, and (3) substituting potatoes for other crops and enhancing irrigation productivity. These strategies aim to optimize water consumption in agriculture, the primary consumer of water resources. These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive and sustainable water management policies to mitigate human-induced stresses and enhance resilience against climate change in water-scarce regions.