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<p>The green and low-carbon development of the countries along the Belt and Road (B&amp;R) has become the focus of research as a result of the strong growth of China’s B&amp;R Initiative. The carbon emission performance (CEP) of nations along the B&amp;R is analyzed statistically and dynamically in this research using a slack-based measurement Undesirable model and a global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index. The propensity score matching-difference in differences (PSM-DID) model is furthermore used to determine how the B&amp;R Initiative has affected the CEP of pertinent nations. The results demonstrate that, from a static perspective, the CEP of nations along the route only reaches 66.6% of the optimum value, and there is still 33.4% of development potential. The overall GML index on CEP for nations along the B&amp;R has increased by 1.4%, efficiency change (EC) by 0.5%, and technical change (TC) by 0.9% in the past two decades from a dynamic perspective. The TC contributes more to improving CEP than the EC. The B&amp;R Initiative has an inhibiting influence on the CEP of countries along the route during 2000–2018, as indicated by the calculated coefficient, which is − 0.091. The dynamic effect results, however, indicate a three-year lag time for the positive impacts of the B&amp;R Initiative. The promotion effect began to appear in 2016 and later years, while the influence effect steadily grew over time with the effect coefficients of 0.019, 0.061, and 0.191. The study’s findings are crucial for advancing green B&amp;R building and lowering carbon emissions worldwide.</p>

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Research on the impact of the belt and road initiative on the carbon emission performance of countries along the route

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月28日

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  • Jing Li,
  • Yanping Zhou,
  • Huiying Chen

摘要

The green and low-carbon development of the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) has become the focus of research as a result of the strong growth of China’s B&R Initiative. The carbon emission performance (CEP) of nations along the B&R is analyzed statistically and dynamically in this research using a slack-based measurement Undesirable model and a global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index. The propensity score matching-difference in differences (PSM-DID) model is furthermore used to determine how the B&R Initiative has affected the CEP of pertinent nations. The results demonstrate that, from a static perspective, the CEP of nations along the route only reaches 66.6% of the optimum value, and there is still 33.4% of development potential. The overall GML index on CEP for nations along the B&R has increased by 1.4%, efficiency change (EC) by 0.5%, and technical change (TC) by 0.9% in the past two decades from a dynamic perspective. The TC contributes more to improving CEP than the EC. The B&R Initiative has an inhibiting influence on the CEP of countries along the route during 2000–2018, as indicated by the calculated coefficient, which is − 0.091. The dynamic effect results, however, indicate a three-year lag time for the positive impacts of the B&R Initiative. The promotion effect began to appear in 2016 and later years, while the influence effect steadily grew over time with the effect coefficients of 0.019, 0.061, and 0.191. The study’s findings are crucial for advancing green B&R building and lowering carbon emissions worldwide.