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<p>Events of snow avalanches have increased across mountainous regions worldwide, including the Indian Western Himalayas (IWH). Factors such as climate warming, untimely precipitation, complicated topography, and increased anthropogenic activities have contributed to the increase. There is a need for a holistic vulnerability study on snow avalanches in IWH which considers multiple factors. This study presents a district-level avalanche vulnerability study in the IWH considering all major meteorological, topographical and anthropogenic factors. The study proposes a Combined Avalanche Vulnerability Index (CAVI) using two classification and three aggregation methods to account for the uncertainties involved with different methods. Moreover, a phase-wise adaptation plan to potentially mitigate the impacts of avalanches is suggested, including pre-hazard, during-hazard, and post-hazard adaptation measures. Results show that the use of classification methods, beta or statistical, do not have a prominent role, since they estimate similar vulnerability categories. Use of aggregation methods has a more prominent role in vulnerability outcomes since 55% of districts show change in categories. Results from CAVI show that Lahaul and Spiti is the most exposed district (0.85), Shimla is the most sensitive, while Rudraprayag (0.3) is the least adaptive district to avalanches. Moreover, three out of five districts of Himachal Pradesh are highly vulnerable to avalanches, while five out of six districts of Uttarakhand are moderately vulnerable. Overall, Lahaul and Spiti is the most vulnerable district, while Shimla and Pauri Garhwal are the least vulnerable. The performance of the different vulnerability indices and the CAVI is validated through the Receiver Operating Characteristic method. The study provides an inclusive characterization of avalanche-prone regions, supported by a phase-wise adaptation plan to mitigate potential risks. The outcomes will be helpful to disaster mitigation agencies, emergency departments, avalanche forecasters and agencies related to recreational activities.</p>

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A multi-aggregation approach to estimate avalanche vulnerability and suggest phase-wise adaptation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月4日

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  • Akshay Singhal,
  • M. Kavya,
  • Sanjeev K. Jha

摘要

Events of snow avalanches have increased across mountainous regions worldwide, including the Indian Western Himalayas (IWH). Factors such as climate warming, untimely precipitation, complicated topography, and increased anthropogenic activities have contributed to the increase. There is a need for a holistic vulnerability study on snow avalanches in IWH which considers multiple factors. This study presents a district-level avalanche vulnerability study in the IWH considering all major meteorological, topographical and anthropogenic factors. The study proposes a Combined Avalanche Vulnerability Index (CAVI) using two classification and three aggregation methods to account for the uncertainties involved with different methods. Moreover, a phase-wise adaptation plan to potentially mitigate the impacts of avalanches is suggested, including pre-hazard, during-hazard, and post-hazard adaptation measures. Results show that the use of classification methods, beta or statistical, do not have a prominent role, since they estimate similar vulnerability categories. Use of aggregation methods has a more prominent role in vulnerability outcomes since 55% of districts show change in categories. Results from CAVI show that Lahaul and Spiti is the most exposed district (0.85), Shimla is the most sensitive, while Rudraprayag (0.3) is the least adaptive district to avalanches. Moreover, three out of five districts of Himachal Pradesh are highly vulnerable to avalanches, while five out of six districts of Uttarakhand are moderately vulnerable. Overall, Lahaul and Spiti is the most vulnerable district, while Shimla and Pauri Garhwal are the least vulnerable. The performance of the different vulnerability indices and the CAVI is validated through the Receiver Operating Characteristic method. The study provides an inclusive characterization of avalanche-prone regions, supported by a phase-wise adaptation plan to mitigate potential risks. The outcomes will be helpful to disaster mitigation agencies, emergency departments, avalanche forecasters and agencies related to recreational activities.