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<p>In a world where environmental and energy issues are receiving increasing attention, understanding the interactions between global oil price volatility, fuel imports, and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions is essential, particularly for fuel-importing nations like Morocco, which has not had active refining companies since 2015. In this study, we use daily OHLC (Open, high, low, close) exchange prices and the ARDL modeling technique in the R language to optimize 216 model combinations through a grid search algorithm to find the best models. The main findings demonstrate that, in short-term scenarios, every 1% rise in fuel imports causes a 72&#xa0;kt increase in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Furthermore, a stable crude oil price was linked with a 0.14% rise in national fuel imports and 157.7&#xa0;kt of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Additionally, a one-dollar higher price per barrel results in a 0.03% decrease in fuel imports and a 86.98&#xa0;kt reduction in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. In contrast, lower prices lead to a 0.05% rise in fuel imports and a 6.66&#xa0;kt increase in emissions. This study closes a literature gap by employing daily barrel exchange prices and trading methods to investigate real-world economic and environmental impacts, offering insight into the local effects of global crude price fluctuations on fuel-importing nations. This study provides both theoretical and empirical evidence for stakeholders, policymakers, and academics interested in enhancing energy security and lowering carbon emissions.</p>

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World crude oil price volatility impacts on domestic fuel-imports and carbon emissions: short and long-run evidence using ARDL

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月11日

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  • Amine El Kadri,
  • Mohammed El-Khodary

摘要

In a world where environmental and energy issues are receiving increasing attention, understanding the interactions between global oil price volatility, fuel imports, and CO2 emissions is essential, particularly for fuel-importing nations like Morocco, which has not had active refining companies since 2015. In this study, we use daily OHLC (Open, high, low, close) exchange prices and the ARDL modeling technique in the R language to optimize 216 model combinations through a grid search algorithm to find the best models. The main findings demonstrate that, in short-term scenarios, every 1% rise in fuel imports causes a 72 kt increase in CO2 emissions. Furthermore, a stable crude oil price was linked with a 0.14% rise in national fuel imports and 157.7 kt of CO2 emissions. Additionally, a one-dollar higher price per barrel results in a 0.03% decrease in fuel imports and a 86.98 kt reduction in CO2 emissions. In contrast, lower prices lead to a 0.05% rise in fuel imports and a 6.66 kt increase in emissions. This study closes a literature gap by employing daily barrel exchange prices and trading methods to investigate real-world economic and environmental impacts, offering insight into the local effects of global crude price fluctuations on fuel-importing nations. This study provides both theoretical and empirical evidence for stakeholders, policymakers, and academics interested in enhancing energy security and lowering carbon emissions.