Assessing climate change impacts on agricultural total factor productivity in selected organization of islamic cooperation (OIC) countries

This study investigates the effects of climate change on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (ATFP) among member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), taking into account their development levels. Employing Panel Data Techniques (PDT), we analyze climate variable impacts on ATFP from 1996 to 2019 and project effects up to 2100 under five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios. Results reveal varied ATFP growth rates across OIC groups, with positive effects observed from variables such as capital-labor ratio and agricultural land area, while temperature and energy consumption negatively impact ATFP. Climate change has led to reduced agricultural productivity, particularly affecting middle-income countries. Given the strong link between ATFP and global warming, governments must increase financial support for developing new technologies and diversifying crops. Specifically, Middle-Income countries within the OIC should significantly boost investments to counteract climate change’s adverse effects on ATFP.