Toward crop–livestock integration: a comprehensive framework for cropping system adaptation assessment to mitigate forage shortage

Significant efforts are underway in developing countries to shift cropping systems with the purpose of alleviating forage supply–demand conflicts. However, few studies have comprehensively evaluated cropping system adaptation strategies at a regional scale. This study established a systematic framework for designing and performing integrated assessments of cropping system transitions, incorporating analyses of forage supply–demand balance and multiperspective performance evaluations. Through a case study in Chengde, China, the results revealed a significant forage supply–demand imbalance in 2020. Forage production could support only approximately 31% of the region's livestock population, resulting in a deficit of 5.18 billion kg. Addressing this forage deficit requires shifting 12,299.62 ha from grain maize cultivation to silage maize cultivation. An economic analysis indicated that this shift could increase total profit by $22.9 million, equivalent to a per capita income rise of $15.74 for Chengde's farmers. With respect to the environment, a life cycle assessment revealed a 53.63% reduction in global warming potential, equivalent to 5.03 × 10⁴ t CO₂ eq. These results highlight that shifting cropping systems can effectively address forage deficits while achieving economic profitability and environmental sustainability. Our study suggests that the transition of cropping systems in agropastoral regions facing similar challenges to achieve sustainable agro-pastoral development should be encouraged.