Assessing the impact of Population Aging on Carbon emissions: Regional disparities in China

Amidst the rapid growth of the Chinese economy, the issue of carbon emissions has garnered increasing concern. Previous studies have highlighted the significant impact of population dynamics on carbon emissions, yet they have largely overlooked the regional variations in this effect. Leveraging data on carbon emissions and economic development from 31 provinces in China between 2003 and 2020, and employing a bidirectional fixed effects model, our study examines the impact of the population aging on carbon emissions and its regional disparities. Our analysis yields several key findings. First, notable regional disparities in carbon emissions exist, with heightened levels observed in economically advanced regions of China. Second, population aging contributes demonstrably to increased carbon emissions, which is particularly evident in the eastern and northeastern regions. However, contrary to this trend, the population aging appears to mitigate carbon emissions in western regions. Importantly, we ascertain that the influence of population aging on carbon emissions varies with regional economic and social development. Enhanced regional urbanization and industrialization amplify the beneficial effects of population aging on carbon emissions. These findings have important implications for advancing green energy initiatives and accelerating shifts in economic development paradigms, highlighting the need to account for regional differences in the process of green transformation.