Rural roadways and regional sustenance: assessing the spatial dynamics of transportation infrastructure on food insecurity in Pakistan and its provinces

Despite substantial progress in addressing undernutrition, the lack of regular access to adequate food remains a major concern for millions in Pakistan. This study explores the effects of rural transportation infrastructure on district-level food insecurity across Pakistan and its provinces—Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Sindh, and Balochistan. The primary contribution of this study lies in examining the direct and spatial spillover effects of transportation infrastructure to assess whether rural area infrastructure development in the local district can effectively reduce food insecurity locally and in neighboring districts to foster regional development. Food insecurity is measured using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, whereas transportation infrastructure is determined by metaled roads, mud roads, and transport facilities. Using global Moran’s I, we confirmed spatial dependence and employed the spatial lag model for analysis. At the national level, findings reveal that metaled roads in the local district have a significantly negative effect on food insecurity in the local district and neighboring districts, whereas mud roads have a significantly positive effect on food insecurity in both territories. Transport facilities like vehicles significantly reduce food insecurity within the local district, although their effect on neighboring districts is negative but statistically insignificant. The transportation infrastructure index has negative and significant effects on regional food insecurity, propagating from local districts to their neighbors. Provincially, the composite index captures inter-provincial heterogeneity and intra-provincial homogeneity of infrastructure development. It significantly reduces food insecurity in local and neighboring districts in Punjab and lowers food insecurity in the local districts of Sindh and KPK but shows no significant effect in Balochistan. We advocate prioritizing upgrades to rural roads and enhancing transportation coordination to maximize regional benefits, especially in underdeveloped areas like Balochistan. Although focused on Pakistan, our findings have broader implications for other developing nations grappling with similar challenges in rural infrastructure and food security.