Comparative analysis to assess food security in south asian nations: an application of multivariate GARCH model

In the era of climate change, global food security is expected to increase, which is becoming a challenge to ensuring sustainable development goal (SDG) 2 to zero hunger in 2030. However, a recent study recommends that climate variability, globalization, and food security are the main hurdles in developing countries in overcoming the issue of food insecurity. This study examined the impact of globalization and climate variability on food security across India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh during 2001–2023. The food security data was collected from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), while globalization data was taken from KOF globalization. In addition, the data for climate variability, population density, foreign direct investment, economic growth, and inflation was assessed from the World Development Indicators. Two-layer principal component analysis (TLPCA) was used to develop the food security index. In contrast, multivariate Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH 1, 1) was used to determine the impact of globalization and climate variability on food security. The study revealed that globalization and climate variability negatively affect food security in Pakistan and India. In addition, the study found that population density significantly mitigates the undesirable effects of globalization and climate variability on food security. This study helps policymakers to develop strategies related to globalization, climate variability, and population density to optimize food security.