Timely achievement of carbon peak for China: evidence from major energy-consuming industries

The time of carbon peak for major energy-consuming industries determines whether China can meet its carbon peak commitment. Therefore, studying the carbon emissions of major energy-consuming industries is necessary. However, few studies have translated China’s carbon peak goal into the goal of major energy-consuming industries. Using the emission factor method and the Kaya-LMDI model to account for and decompose carbon emissions from 1999 to 2020 and using scenario analysis and the Monte Carlo algorithm to predict the trend of carbon emissions from 2021 to 2030 under different scenarios, we drew vital conclusions. Reduction of energy intensity of production industries and the shift of economic structure to tertiary industry will inhibit the growth of carbon emissions from major energy-consuming industries, with average annual contributions of − 23.27% and − 36.94%, respectively. The growth of per capita industry output and total population will promote the growth of carbon emissions, with average annual contributions of 83.45% and 6.55%, respectively. Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat has the greatest carbon reduction potential. The energy-saving scenario is most likely to achieve the carbon peak goal, with a carbon peak date of 2028 and carbon emissions from major energy-consuming industries of 13,773 Mt . This means that China will need to make more efforts. This study provides a unique research perspective on carbon peak at the industry level in China, offering new insights into resource allocation and policy preferences, and serving as a reference for other countries aiming to translate carbon peak goal from the national level to the industry level.