Inter-industry linkages, air pollution and human health in the European Union towards 2030

Air pollution has been associated with many adverse health effects. This paper aims to analyse the effects of inter-industry linkages on air pollution and human health. Environmentally-extended input–output models have been linked to a regional atmospheric chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and a global exposure mortality model to conduct an economy-wide assessment of air pollution and attributable mortality in the European Union (EU) associated with the expected growth of economic sectors towards 2030. Model results reveal significant differences in economic sectors’ direct and indirect air pollution intensities across EU countries. Shipping creates the highest pollutant intensity per unit of economic output, reaching more than 20 tonnes/million Euro for NOx, which is 4–5 times higher than for industry and power generation. Industry and power generation lead to the largest (direct and indirect) increases in PM2.5 concentrations in absolute terms. The most substantial effects of industrial growth on PM2.5 levels are found in Germany and northern Italy. The greatest impacts of the energy sector’s expansion will occur in central Europe, Finland, Estonia and major urban areas in southern Europe. As a result, the mortality burden of air pollution towards 2030 is primarily localised in the central and northern parts of Europe. Our findings suggest that in sectors with high direct emission intensities, like shipping, air transport and agriculture, mitigation should focus on actions taken within these sectors. Conversely, in sectors characterised by high indirect emission intensities, like industry, energy and land transport, mitigation efforts should prioritize targeting the upstream sectors providing inputs.