Modelling carbon emissions from the urban district heating sector based on system dynamics

High-carbon-emission heating technologies are inherently unsustainable. Embracing district heating systems with low carbon dioxide emission becomes a crucial option for effectively decarbonizing the heating sector. While early studies frequently emphasized the influence of particular variables, they failed to consider the diverse nature of district heating systems. This study devised a comprehensive method characterized by high flexibility and applicability in predicting carbon dioxide emission from urban district heating using system dynamics. It meticulously identified the primary factors influencing carbon dioxide emission across building, heating, and power subsystems. Each subsystem was sorted into high, medium, or low development models. With 27 scenarios in total, objectives and tasks were customized for each based on the development models. Subsequently, carbon dioxide emission from urban district heating in Heilongjiang Province over the next 40 years (2020–2060) were simulated. The findings demonstrate the potential for significant reduction in urban heating carbon dioxide emission. In the low-speed scenario, emissions can be effectively reduced by at least 60% compared to 2020 levels, while the high-speed scenario suggests a potential reduction of 80% or more by 2060, in combination with China’s current policies.