Evaluation and promotion path of high-quality development in the Chinese construction industry under the context of carbon neutrality

Achieving carbon neutrality is essential for global sustainable development. In China, fostering high-quality development represents the primary strategy for enhancing energy conservation and sustaining economic growth. Despite its significance, the construction industry—a major consumer of energy and a substantial source of carbon emissions—has not been extensively studied. This research evaluates the high-quality development of construction industry (HDCI) in China and seeks to chart a course for its advancement. Initially, it constructs an evaluation index system and utilizes the composite weighting method to assess the industry's development quality across provinces from 2008 to 2020. Subsequently, it applies exploratory spatial analysis and Markov chain models to uncover the spatiotemporal patterns and evolutionary trends of HDCI. The study further examines the spatial heterogeneity of factors influencing spatiotemporal differentiation by employing a geographically and temporally weighted regression model. The findings reveal that (1) the overall index of high-quality development in the construction sector is improving, with the green energy-saving index ranking the highest among six dimensions. (2) Significant regional disparities exist, with the eastern and central regions outperforming the western and northeastern areas. (3) The focal point of high-quality development is shifting towards the southwest, indicating strong spatial correlation within HDCI. High-value provinces exhibit a more potent positive spillover effect compared to the negative impact of lower-value provinces. (4) The driving factors, including financial expenditure urbanization, energy consumption structure, and technological innovation capacity, show spatial heterogeneity. This suggests that regional industries should pursue tailored development strategies based on local characteristics. Based on these insights, the study proposes policy recommendations to foster HDCI in China, advocating for approaches that align with regional strengths and conditions.