The impact of digitalization on low-carbon transition in China: the moderating role of dual development targets

The development of digitalization provides a perfect opportunity for China to realize low-carbon transition. This study first discusses the impact mechanism of digitalization on low-carbon transition under the constraints of the dual development targets. Second, this study utilized annual data of 30 Chinese provinces between 2011 and 2021, and a two-way fixed effect, threshold effect, mediating effect, and moderating effect model have been adopted to investigate the impact of digitalization on low-carbon transition. The results show that: (1) digitalization has a significant promotion effect on low-carbon transition. (2) The impact of digitalization on low-carbon transition presents a significant nonlinear threshold effect, with two thresholds. (3) A promotion of low-carbon transition through digitalization could be realized via digitalization’s impact on energy efficiency, green technology innovation and industrial structure upgrading. (4) The economic growth target has a negative moderating effect on digitalization’s low-carbon transition promotion effect, while the environmental governance target has a positive moderating effect. Based on the above conclusions, specific recommendations are proposed with regard to digitalization promoting low-carbon transition.