A novel discrete conformable fractional grey system model for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions

Providing an accurate forecast of the CO₂ emission growth path at the country level can help governments make informed decisions, thereby making their environmental protection policies more effective. A conformable fractional discrete grey system model is raised for carbon emission forecasting in this paper. The proposed model improves the traditional discrete grey-based model by incorporating CFA and CFD, built and tested by using the annual CO₂ emissions data from Germany, Japan, and Thailand from 2011 to 2021. As is demonstrated by experimental results, the model is extremely advantageous in comparison with a variety of benchmark grey-based models. Based on the model, an examination of carbon emission trends in the three countries reveals that all of them made progress in reducing air pollution, and Japan achieved the most CO₂ emissions reduction during the period.