<p>In this study, a system dynamics model with a particular focus on the impact of energy policies on Turkey’s energy self-sufficiency was developed, incorporating various variables that interact dynamically with each other. The set of targets for renewable energy capacity building and the commissioning of nuclear power plants, which are key priorities for the Turkish government, were examined through three different scenarios. Turkey’s annual energy import is expected to reach almost 50 TWh if no energy capacity investments are made in the future (Scenario-1). Although this gap could be closed with renewable energy capacity expansion within the scope of the 1st set of development targets, model simulation outcomes show that current capacity will fall short of meeting the national energy demand in the long run (Scenario-2). In a scenario where the capacity installations of solar and wind power, coupled with nuclear energy investment in the scope of the 2nd set of development targets, Turkey is expected to meet its national energy demand and to export 3.5% of its energy produced from renewables in 2045 (Scenario-3). In such a case, it was indicated by the Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis that, depending on the time required to meet the targets in nuclear and renewable energy, Turkey could potentially export 10 TWh of the energy it produces in 2075.</p>