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<p>Energy stock markets in the United States are increasingly shaped by uncertainty linked to climate policy, oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and energy-related risks, posing challenges for investors and policymakers. This study investigates their effects on U.S. energy stock returns (ESR) from 2005m1 to 2022m12 using Quantile-on-Quantile Kernel Regularized Least Squares (QQKRLS), Quantile-on-Quantile Granger Causality (QQGC), and Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR). Results highlight asymmetric and state-dependent effects. Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) supports returns at mid-quantiles but weakens them at extremes. Oil Price Uncertainty (OPU) is predominantly negative, especially in downturns, with limited positive influence. Geopolitical Risk (GPR) strongly depresses returns at lower quantiles, underscoring vulnerability in bearish conditions. Energy related uncertainty (EUI) shows mixed effects, reducing returns at low quantiles but enhancing them at moderate levels. Overall, uncertainty shocks exert heterogeneous impacts across the distribution of returns, revealing that energy stocks are more sensitive during adverse or extreme market conditions. These findings deepen understanding of the uncertainty–energy nexus and provide valuable insights for investors and U.S. policymakers navigating volatile energy and financial markets.</p>

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Can Geopolitical Risks, International Climate Policies, and the Uncertainty of Oil Prices Affect the Returns of Energy Stocks?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

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  • Qianwei Wang,
  • Babatunde Sunday Eweade,
  • Dilber Uzun Ozsahin

摘要

Energy stock markets in the United States are increasingly shaped by uncertainty linked to climate policy, oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and energy-related risks, posing challenges for investors and policymakers. This study investigates their effects on U.S. energy stock returns (ESR) from 2005m1 to 2022m12 using Quantile-on-Quantile Kernel Regularized Least Squares (QQKRLS), Quantile-on-Quantile Granger Causality (QQGC), and Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR). Results highlight asymmetric and state-dependent effects. Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) supports returns at mid-quantiles but weakens them at extremes. Oil Price Uncertainty (OPU) is predominantly negative, especially in downturns, with limited positive influence. Geopolitical Risk (GPR) strongly depresses returns at lower quantiles, underscoring vulnerability in bearish conditions. Energy related uncertainty (EUI) shows mixed effects, reducing returns at low quantiles but enhancing them at moderate levels. Overall, uncertainty shocks exert heterogeneous impacts across the distribution of returns, revealing that energy stocks are more sensitive during adverse or extreme market conditions. These findings deepen understanding of the uncertainty–energy nexus and provide valuable insights for investors and U.S. policymakers navigating volatile energy and financial markets.