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<p>This research aims to investigate the dynamic and potentially asymmetric relationships between the ecological footprint (EF) and gross domestic product (GDP), oil production (OIL), gas production (GAS), and trade openness (TO) in Caspian countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan) from 1990 to 2023. Implementing ARDL and NARDL models, we investigate short-run and long-run impacts, as well as possible asymmetries in these relationships. The ARDL model reveals both positive and negative long-run relationships among GDP, gas, oil, TO, and EF. Our research fills a research gap by examining the asymmetric relationships between EF, GDP, oil, gas, and TO in a region heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Given its unique economic structure and environmental vulnerabilities, understanding these asymmetries is important. Specifically, a 1% increase in GDP is associated with a 0.43% reduction in EF, while a 1% decrease in GDP results in a 0.77% increase in EF. Increases in gas and oil, by 1%, are Linked to significant increases in EF by 0.15% and 0.51%. Conversely, a 1% decrease in these activities leads to reductions in EF by 0.17% and 0.37%. TO presents mixed impacts: a 1% increase contributes to a 0.18% rise in EF, whereas a 1% decrease results in a 0.20% reduction. The NARDL shows that positive GDP leads to a 0.43% reduction in EF. Conversely, economic downturns, represented by a 1% decline in GDP, lead to a 0.77% increase in EF. Similarly, the model indicates that increases in gas and oil significantly elevate EF by 0.15% and 0.51%, respectively. Both models confirm the presence of a significant long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, with the error correction terms (ECT) indicating a steady adjustment process toward equilibrium. The findings contribute to the literature by highlighting the need for sustainable strategies that mitigate environmental damage. Based on them, counter-cyclical environmental policies are recommended, ensuring that sustainability measures remain robust even during economic slowdowns. Investments in green infrastructure and renewables should be prioritized to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation. Governments in the Caspian region should gradually transition toward cleaner energy sources.</p>

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Assessing Asymmetries Among Economic Growth, Trade, Resources, and Ecological Footprint in the Caspian Region

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月11日

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  • Adela Bâra,
  • Irina Alexandra Georgescu,
  • Simona-Vasilica Oprea

摘要

This research aims to investigate the dynamic and potentially asymmetric relationships between the ecological footprint (EF) and gross domestic product (GDP), oil production (OIL), gas production (GAS), and trade openness (TO) in Caspian countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan) from 1990 to 2023. Implementing ARDL and NARDL models, we investigate short-run and long-run impacts, as well as possible asymmetries in these relationships. The ARDL model reveals both positive and negative long-run relationships among GDP, gas, oil, TO, and EF. Our research fills a research gap by examining the asymmetric relationships between EF, GDP, oil, gas, and TO in a region heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Given its unique economic structure and environmental vulnerabilities, understanding these asymmetries is important. Specifically, a 1% increase in GDP is associated with a 0.43% reduction in EF, while a 1% decrease in GDP results in a 0.77% increase in EF. Increases in gas and oil, by 1%, are Linked to significant increases in EF by 0.15% and 0.51%. Conversely, a 1% decrease in these activities leads to reductions in EF by 0.17% and 0.37%. TO presents mixed impacts: a 1% increase contributes to a 0.18% rise in EF, whereas a 1% decrease results in a 0.20% reduction. The NARDL shows that positive GDP leads to a 0.43% reduction in EF. Conversely, economic downturns, represented by a 1% decline in GDP, lead to a 0.77% increase in EF. Similarly, the model indicates that increases in gas and oil significantly elevate EF by 0.15% and 0.51%, respectively. Both models confirm the presence of a significant long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, with the error correction terms (ECT) indicating a steady adjustment process toward equilibrium. The findings contribute to the literature by highlighting the need for sustainable strategies that mitigate environmental damage. Based on them, counter-cyclical environmental policies are recommended, ensuring that sustainability measures remain robust even during economic slowdowns. Investments in green infrastructure and renewables should be prioritized to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation. Governments in the Caspian region should gradually transition toward cleaner energy sources.