Probabilistic Transport-Induced Emissions and Health Risks for Adelaide, South Australia

The research aims to assess the risks associated with the transport-induced emissions (major criteria pollutants) in Adelaide, South Australia. A stochastic emission modelling strategy was implemented for a probabilistic risk assessment of the transport system for current and future scenarios, by analysing the road specific transport system data. The simulated result suggests that NOx and PM_2.5 risks are significant at about 35% of city areas, especially along the roads with heavy vehicle concentration and higher traffic. The risk will significantly increase in 10 years if the current practice persists, demonstrating a high probability (more than 60%) of emissions above 150% of the air quality standard. The research suggests that appropriate planning is necessary to cope with the development needs for the system’s future sustainability.