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<p>This paper examines the evolution of trade concentration and diversification in a small open economy from 2010 to 2024, with a particular focus on the post-2020 shock environment. Using UN Comtrade data, we analyze exports and imports by partner and product, distinguishing changes in trade scope from changes in exposure. Concentration is measured using partner- and product-level Herfindahl–Hirschman Indices, effective numbers of partners and products, and top-five product shares at the HS4 level (four-digit Harmonized System). Trade scope is captured by extensive-margin indicators based on the number of active HS4 product lines. We benchmark Slovenia against comparable small open economies in Central and Eastern Europe, the Nordics, and the Baltics, with Austria as an upper-regional benchmark, and complement the descriptive analysis with panel regressions. This yields three main results. First, partner concentration is consistently higher on the import side than on the export side across benchmarks. Second, the post-2020 period is marked by increased concentration in core products and, in some cases, partners, alongside modest expansion in extensive margins. Third, while broader product scope is associated with lower concentration, this relationship is economically small and does not offset the observed post-2020 reconcentration in Slovenia. Overall, the findings highlight that changes in trade scope and exposure may diverge, underscoring the importance of jointly interpreting concentration and extensive-margin indicators for small open economies under heightened global uncertainty.</p>

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Trade scope and concentration after 2020: evidence from a small open economy

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月22日

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摘要

This paper examines the evolution of trade concentration and diversification in a small open economy from 2010 to 2024, with a particular focus on the post-2020 shock environment. Using UN Comtrade data, we analyze exports and imports by partner and product, distinguishing changes in trade scope from changes in exposure. Concentration is measured using partner- and product-level Herfindahl–Hirschman Indices, effective numbers of partners and products, and top-five product shares at the HS4 level (four-digit Harmonized System). Trade scope is captured by extensive-margin indicators based on the number of active HS4 product lines. We benchmark Slovenia against comparable small open economies in Central and Eastern Europe, the Nordics, and the Baltics, with Austria as an upper-regional benchmark, and complement the descriptive analysis with panel regressions. This yields three main results. First, partner concentration is consistently higher on the import side than on the export side across benchmarks. Second, the post-2020 period is marked by increased concentration in core products and, in some cases, partners, alongside modest expansion in extensive margins. Third, while broader product scope is associated with lower concentration, this relationship is economically small and does not offset the observed post-2020 reconcentration in Slovenia. Overall, the findings highlight that changes in trade scope and exposure may diverge, underscoring the importance of jointly interpreting concentration and extensive-margin indicators for small open economies under heightened global uncertainty.