Scholarlink

<p>This study explores the economic determinants of voting dynamics for radical right parties in Europe. To this end, we compile election data to obtain the vote shares of RRPs across 258 NUTS-2 regions in Europe from 2009 to 2022. First, the study maps the regional rise of RRPs over time, highlighting their dissemination across Europe and the regional disparities in their electoral success. The central research question examines the extent to which economic factors influence the voting rates of populist and extremist right-wing parties in Europe. Given that potential determinants of voting behaviour are often selected in an ad hoc manner and that the literature presents mixed findings, this study employs the Bayesian Model Averaging method to analyse economic voting behaviour. This method explicitly accounts for model uncertainty to identify the most relevant predictors. The results suggest that labour market conditions, poverty, life expectancy, and education indicators should be considered when examining RRP voting dynamics. However, economic voting behaviour alone does not fully explain the electoral success of RRPs in Europe. Additionally, the convergence clubs analysis highlights the varying impacts of socio-economic factors on voting behaviour, conditional on regional economic characteristics. The findings partially support the public backlash argument in explaining the rise of the radical right. Lastly, frequentist panel regression emphasises regional heterogeneities and largely corroborates the conclusions drawn from the Bayesian analysis.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Economic voting and the radical right in Europe: unveiling regional dynamics with novel approaches

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月8日

查看全文
  • Umurcan Polat,
  • Altan Bozdoğan

摘要

This study explores the economic determinants of voting dynamics for radical right parties in Europe. To this end, we compile election data to obtain the vote shares of RRPs across 258 NUTS-2 regions in Europe from 2009 to 2022. First, the study maps the regional rise of RRPs over time, highlighting their dissemination across Europe and the regional disparities in their electoral success. The central research question examines the extent to which economic factors influence the voting rates of populist and extremist right-wing parties in Europe. Given that potential determinants of voting behaviour are often selected in an ad hoc manner and that the literature presents mixed findings, this study employs the Bayesian Model Averaging method to analyse economic voting behaviour. This method explicitly accounts for model uncertainty to identify the most relevant predictors. The results suggest that labour market conditions, poverty, life expectancy, and education indicators should be considered when examining RRP voting dynamics. However, economic voting behaviour alone does not fully explain the electoral success of RRPs in Europe. Additionally, the convergence clubs analysis highlights the varying impacts of socio-economic factors on voting behaviour, conditional on regional economic characteristics. The findings partially support the public backlash argument in explaining the rise of the radical right. Lastly, frequentist panel regression emphasises regional heterogeneities and largely corroborates the conclusions drawn from the Bayesian analysis.