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<p>Eastern India’s tropical deciduous forest ecosystems, dominated by <i>Shorea robusta</i> C.F.Gaertn., are increasingly threatened by abiotic stressors and climate change, posing significant risks to species survival, regeneration dynamics, and forest genetic resources. This study assessed the current status and future distributional dynamics of <i>S. robusta</i> and its five major associates, <i>Terminalia alata</i> B.Heyne ex Roth, <i>Pterocarpus marsupium</i> Roxb., <i>Lagerstroemia parviflora</i> Roxb., <i>Diospyros melanoxylon</i> Blume, and <i>Madhuca longifolia</i> (J.Koenig ex L.) J.F.Macbr., under changing climatic conditions in eastern India. Field surveys were conducted across 870 quadrats distributed throughout the tropical deciduous forests of Jharkhand, Bihar, and West Bengal during 2020–2023 to collect species occurrence, population structure, and regeneration data. Species distributions under current and future climate scenarios were modelled using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) software under different CMIP6 climate models (INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MIROC6) proxied through four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Under current climatic conditions, <i>S. robusta</i> occupied highest coverage (~ 12.13%) across the study area as suitable habitat, proving its dominance. Future projections indicated a northward shift and contraction of suitable habitat for <i>S. robusta</i>, <i>P. marsupium</i>, and <i>L. parviflora</i>, with <i>S. robusta</i> projected to lose approximately 14–67% of its suitable habitat by 2050. Under a business-as-usual scenario, all studied species were predicted to experience habitat decline, with the greatest reduction (~ 84%) observed for <i>L. parviflora</i>. Population assessments revealed good regeneration status for <i>S. robusta</i>, <i>M. longifolia</i>, <i>P. marsupium</i>, <i>T. alata</i>, and <i>D. melanoxylon</i>, whereas <i>L. parviflora</i> exhibited comparatively poorer regeneration. Notably, <i>P. marsupium</i> and <i>M. longifolia</i> exhibit resilience to climate stress, supported by favorable regeneration status. These findings provide a scientific basis for location- and species-specific conservation and restoration strategies to enhance the long-term resilience of eastern India’s tropical deciduous forest ecosystems under climate change.</p>

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Conservation of forest genetic resources in eastern India amidst climate change and abiotic stress

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月25日

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  • Sanjoy Garai,
  • Ayushman Malakar,
  • Yogeshwar Mishra,
  • Rikesh Kumar,
  • Manjuel Jojo,
  • Sonu Choudhary,
  • Surojit Konar,
  • Aryan Mishra,
  • Sharad Tiwari

摘要

Eastern India’s tropical deciduous forest ecosystems, dominated by Shorea robusta C.F.Gaertn., are increasingly threatened by abiotic stressors and climate change, posing significant risks to species survival, regeneration dynamics, and forest genetic resources. This study assessed the current status and future distributional dynamics of S. robusta and its five major associates, Terminalia alata B.Heyne ex Roth, Pterocarpus marsupium Roxb., Lagerstroemia parviflora Roxb., Diospyros melanoxylon Blume, and Madhuca longifolia (J.Koenig ex L.) J.F.Macbr., under changing climatic conditions in eastern India. Field surveys were conducted across 870 quadrats distributed throughout the tropical deciduous forests of Jharkhand, Bihar, and West Bengal during 2020–2023 to collect species occurrence, population structure, and regeneration data. Species distributions under current and future climate scenarios were modelled using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) software under different CMIP6 climate models (INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MIROC6) proxied through four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Under current climatic conditions, S. robusta occupied highest coverage (~ 12.13%) across the study area as suitable habitat, proving its dominance. Future projections indicated a northward shift and contraction of suitable habitat for S. robusta, P. marsupium, and L. parviflora, with S. robusta projected to lose approximately 14–67% of its suitable habitat by 2050. Under a business-as-usual scenario, all studied species were predicted to experience habitat decline, with the greatest reduction (~ 84%) observed for L. parviflora. Population assessments revealed good regeneration status for S. robusta, M. longifolia, P. marsupium, T. alata, and D. melanoxylon, whereas L. parviflora exhibited comparatively poorer regeneration. Notably, P. marsupium and M. longifolia exhibit resilience to climate stress, supported by favorable regeneration status. These findings provide a scientific basis for location- and species-specific conservation and restoration strategies to enhance the long-term resilience of eastern India’s tropical deciduous forest ecosystems under climate change.