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<p>The study aims to investigate the role of forests in mitigating urban heat during climate change and focuses on their thermal-regulation performance over 6&#xa0;years (2019–2024). By combining MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data with the Cooling Effect Factor (CEF) approach, the research provides a scientific basis for climate-adapted urban and landscape planning. It quantifies the extent and temporal variation of forest cooling capacity. To assess the cooling performance of forests, two indices were applied: the LST-based Cooling Effect Factor (CEFₗₛₜ) and the NDVI-based Cooling Effect Factor (CEF<sub>NDVI</sub>). Both LST and NDVI values were normalized before calculation to allow interannual comparison. The results indicated that forests consistently exhibited a positive daytime cooling effect across all years, with normalized CEFₗₛₜ values ranging from 0.15 to 0.21. In contrast, nighttime effects were generally weak or negative (− 0.08 to 0.03). The highest cooling efficiencies were observed in 2020 and 2024, corresponding to years with elevated regional temperatures. CEF<sub>NDVI</sub> values ranged from 0.28 to 0.39 during the daytime, also highlighting the strong relationship between vegetation vitality and surface temperature moderation. However, a slight decline in both indices after 2020, particularly as the mean forest NDVI decreased from 0.80 to 0.77, suggested reduced canopy vigour and evapotranspiration capacity. This decline occurred despite the increase in forest area. It may reflect the inclusion of younger or regenerating forest stands, interannual climatic variability, or differences in canopy density and phenological conditions. These findings confirm that forests play a critical role in mitigating urban heat accumulation, and emphasize the sensitivity of their cooling function to vegetation health and climatic variability. The study offers a temporal perspective on forest cooling efficiency and contributes to understanding the adaptive role of green infrastructure in response to warming trends in rapidly urbanizing regions. </p>

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Temporal dynamics of forest cooling efficiency: A multi-year remote sensing perspective for climate–adapted urban planning

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Dilara Yilmaz,
  • Oznur Isinkaralar,
  • Kaan Isinkaralar,
  • Tayebeh Akbari Azirani,
  • Sevgi Öztürk

摘要

The study aims to investigate the role of forests in mitigating urban heat during climate change and focuses on their thermal-regulation performance over 6 years (2019–2024). By combining MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data with the Cooling Effect Factor (CEF) approach, the research provides a scientific basis for climate-adapted urban and landscape planning. It quantifies the extent and temporal variation of forest cooling capacity. To assess the cooling performance of forests, two indices were applied: the LST-based Cooling Effect Factor (CEFₗₛₜ) and the NDVI-based Cooling Effect Factor (CEFNDVI). Both LST and NDVI values were normalized before calculation to allow interannual comparison. The results indicated that forests consistently exhibited a positive daytime cooling effect across all years, with normalized CEFₗₛₜ values ranging from 0.15 to 0.21. In contrast, nighttime effects were generally weak or negative (− 0.08 to 0.03). The highest cooling efficiencies were observed in 2020 and 2024, corresponding to years with elevated regional temperatures. CEFNDVI values ranged from 0.28 to 0.39 during the daytime, also highlighting the strong relationship between vegetation vitality and surface temperature moderation. However, a slight decline in both indices after 2020, particularly as the mean forest NDVI decreased from 0.80 to 0.77, suggested reduced canopy vigour and evapotranspiration capacity. This decline occurred despite the increase in forest area. It may reflect the inclusion of younger or regenerating forest stands, interannual climatic variability, or differences in canopy density and phenological conditions. These findings confirm that forests play a critical role in mitigating urban heat accumulation, and emphasize the sensitivity of their cooling function to vegetation health and climatic variability. The study offers a temporal perspective on forest cooling efficiency and contributes to understanding the adaptive role of green infrastructure in response to warming trends in rapidly urbanizing regions.