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<p>Long-term trajectories of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) provide insights into ecosystem changes associated with vegetation productivity and land degradation. However, their interpretation may depend on land-use history. Here, we analyzed NDVI trajectories from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data (2000–2022) across two contrasting regions in the Brazilian Cerrado: an established agricultural region and an expanding frontier. We evaluated whether NDVI trends differ between regions as a function of land-use dynamics and environmental/climatic conditions. NDVI trajectories were derived using Trends.Earth and correlated with MODIS Gross Primary Production (GPP). Common and region-specific trend drivers were analyzed using binary logistic regression and Wald-type Z tests. Results revealed a remote-sensing paradox. Despite pronounced differences between regions, the primary common driver of NDVI decline was the native savanna conversion to croplands and pastures. Paradoxically, the established agricultural region, where most clearing predated satellite observations, was the most stable, showing the smallest pixel proportion of NDVI decrease (7%) and the highest proportion of increase (52%). In contrast, the agricultural frontier, where native vegetation dominates and clearing largely coincided with satellite observations, showed greater NDVI decline (16%) and smaller increases (37%). Positive NDVI–GPP relationships were weaker in the established region. Region-specific drivers included precipitation, soil sand content, and fire frequency. Longer agricultural use duration contributed to NDVI increases, likely reflecting management practices that mask underlying degradation. Our findings indicate that NDVI-based assessments of land degradation in the Cerrado must consider early land-use history and agricultural management relative to the period of satellite observations.</p>

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Vegetation index trends under contrasting land-use occupation in Brazilian savannas: a paradox between the established region and the agricultural frontier

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • Yan Breno Azeredo Gomes da Silva,
  • Lênio Soares Galvão,
  • Fábio Marcelo Breunig,
  • Lucas Batista de Oliveira

摘要

Long-term trajectories of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) provide insights into ecosystem changes associated with vegetation productivity and land degradation. However, their interpretation may depend on land-use history. Here, we analyzed NDVI trajectories from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data (2000–2022) across two contrasting regions in the Brazilian Cerrado: an established agricultural region and an expanding frontier. We evaluated whether NDVI trends differ between regions as a function of land-use dynamics and environmental/climatic conditions. NDVI trajectories were derived using Trends.Earth and correlated with MODIS Gross Primary Production (GPP). Common and region-specific trend drivers were analyzed using binary logistic regression and Wald-type Z tests. Results revealed a remote-sensing paradox. Despite pronounced differences between regions, the primary common driver of NDVI decline was the native savanna conversion to croplands and pastures. Paradoxically, the established agricultural region, where most clearing predated satellite observations, was the most stable, showing the smallest pixel proportion of NDVI decrease (7%) and the highest proportion of increase (52%). In contrast, the agricultural frontier, where native vegetation dominates and clearing largely coincided with satellite observations, showed greater NDVI decline (16%) and smaller increases (37%). Positive NDVI–GPP relationships were weaker in the established region. Region-specific drivers included precipitation, soil sand content, and fire frequency. Longer agricultural use duration contributed to NDVI increases, likely reflecting management practices that mask underlying degradation. Our findings indicate that NDVI-based assessments of land degradation in the Cerrado must consider early land-use history and agricultural management relative to the period of satellite observations.