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<p>Descriptive remote sensing analyses that contrast vegetation indices across time provide limited understanding of the biophysical and hydrological processes that govern landscape resilience under urbanization. Here, we employ a process-based framework to characterize vegetation–moisture–temperature decoupling across Sakarya Province, Türkiye. Landsat time series spanning 2010, 2018 and 2024 are used to calculate indicators of vegetation condition (soil-adjusted vegetation index, or SAVI), surface moisture (normalized difference water index, or NDWI), and thermal stress (land surface temperature, or LST, and surface urban heat island, or SUHI) which are then combined into an overall Vegetation Resilience Index (VRI). Findings indicate a growing disconnect between increasing surface moisture conditions and vegetation performance: Decoupling is occurring where rising moisture availability has neither translated to vegetation recovery nor afforded meaningful ecosystem cooling services. Changes in NDWI were positive across the time series whereas trends in SAVI were negative and changes in LST were amplified. Resilient areas where vegetation indices have persisted are limited to riparian corridors and forest patches while surfaces that have been paved or disturbed exhibit low resilience. Vegetation change exhibits a weak but statistically significant inverse relationship with surface temperature dynamics. Moisture availability alone may not be a reliable indicator of landscape resilience in urbanizing landscapes. Coupling vegetation change to decoupling theory and resilience thinking provides a planning-relevant pathway forward for climate-responsive urban planning, strategic afforestation/reforestation, and water-smart land management.</p>

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Decoupling vegetation greenness, surface moisture, and thermal stress under rapid urbanization: a resilience-based remote sensing analysis from Sakarya, Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月27日

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  • Mustafa Ergen,
  • Gizem Cengiz Gökçe

摘要

Descriptive remote sensing analyses that contrast vegetation indices across time provide limited understanding of the biophysical and hydrological processes that govern landscape resilience under urbanization. Here, we employ a process-based framework to characterize vegetation–moisture–temperature decoupling across Sakarya Province, Türkiye. Landsat time series spanning 2010, 2018 and 2024 are used to calculate indicators of vegetation condition (soil-adjusted vegetation index, or SAVI), surface moisture (normalized difference water index, or NDWI), and thermal stress (land surface temperature, or LST, and surface urban heat island, or SUHI) which are then combined into an overall Vegetation Resilience Index (VRI). Findings indicate a growing disconnect between increasing surface moisture conditions and vegetation performance: Decoupling is occurring where rising moisture availability has neither translated to vegetation recovery nor afforded meaningful ecosystem cooling services. Changes in NDWI were positive across the time series whereas trends in SAVI were negative and changes in LST were amplified. Resilient areas where vegetation indices have persisted are limited to riparian corridors and forest patches while surfaces that have been paved or disturbed exhibit low resilience. Vegetation change exhibits a weak but statistically significant inverse relationship with surface temperature dynamics. Moisture availability alone may not be a reliable indicator of landscape resilience in urbanizing landscapes. Coupling vegetation change to decoupling theory and resilience thinking provides a planning-relevant pathway forward for climate-responsive urban planning, strategic afforestation/reforestation, and water-smart land management.