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<p>The crab spider <i>Ebrechtella tricuspidata</i> is a vital indigenous natural enemy in China’s agroecosystems, yet its potential distribution dynamics under changing climates remain unquantified. We utilized optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models—configured with Hinge-Product-Threshold feature classes and a regularization multiplier of 1.5 based on AICc selection—to identify key distributional drivers and project future range shifts. The model demonstrated high discriminatory ability (mean AUC = 0.886). Annual Precipitation (Bio12) and Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter (Bio10) were identified as the primary environmental determinants, with the species exhibiting a distinct preference for warm (20–28&#xa0;°C) and humid (&gt; 500&#xa0;mm) habitats. Under current conditions, the total suitable habitat is approximately 2.15 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. Future projections indicate a robust northward and westward expansion, with high-suitability core habitats projected to increase nearly fourfold by the 2070s under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. Crucially, we emphasize that realized colonization will be contingent upon the species' dispersal capabilities, phenological synchronization with floral resources, and complex biotic interactions. These findings provide a potential spatial-temporal framework for “climate-smart” pest management, suggesting that proactive habitat manipulation could facilitate the long-term efficacy of this predator in a warming climate.</p>

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Suitable habitats for Ebrechtella tricuspidata (Araneae, Thomisidae) in China under climate change: implications for biological control

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月21日

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  • Tianlei Liu,
  • Chunlei Cong,
  • Xueli Feng,
  • Zhengxue Zhao,
  • Daochao Jin

摘要

The crab spider Ebrechtella tricuspidata is a vital indigenous natural enemy in China’s agroecosystems, yet its potential distribution dynamics under changing climates remain unquantified. We utilized optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models—configured with Hinge-Product-Threshold feature classes and a regularization multiplier of 1.5 based on AICc selection—to identify key distributional drivers and project future range shifts. The model demonstrated high discriminatory ability (mean AUC = 0.886). Annual Precipitation (Bio12) and Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter (Bio10) were identified as the primary environmental determinants, with the species exhibiting a distinct preference for warm (20–28 °C) and humid (> 500 mm) habitats. Under current conditions, the total suitable habitat is approximately 2.15 × 106 km2. Future projections indicate a robust northward and westward expansion, with high-suitability core habitats projected to increase nearly fourfold by the 2070s under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. Crucially, we emphasize that realized colonization will be contingent upon the species' dispersal capabilities, phenological synchronization with floral resources, and complex biotic interactions. These findings provide a potential spatial-temporal framework for “climate-smart” pest management, suggesting that proactive habitat manipulation could facilitate the long-term efficacy of this predator in a warming climate.