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<p>The tsetse fly <i>Glossina fuscipes</i> is the primary vector of human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) in Sub-Saharan Africa. While its distribution is confined to Africa, a 1990 report from Saudi Arabia created a long-standing biogeographical puzzle. We used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to project habitat suitability across the Afrotropical Region using 158 spatially filtered <i>G. fuscipes</i> occurrence records and bioclimatic variables generated from TerraClimate data (temperature and precipitation) for the reference period 1982–2023. Variables were selected using variance inflation factor analysis to minimize multicollinearity. Future projections employed an ensemble of five general circulation models under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070. The model demonstrated strong performance (training AUC = 0.940, test AUC = 0.931, TSS = 0.681). Precipitation of the driest period was the dominant predictor, followed by altitude, annual precipitation, and mean temperature of the driest quarter, emphasizing critical dependence on year-round moisture availability. Currently, <i>G. fuscipes</i> occupies 3.64 million km<sup>2</sup> (16.7% of Africa) concentrated in East and Central Africa. Climate projections reveal substantial expansion: 38–62% by 2050 and 47–95% by 2070, with minimal contraction (1.08–3.48%). Under SSP5-8.5, suitable habitat could nearly double by 2070, reaching 7.03 million km<sup>2</sup>. The Arabian Peninsula shows no climatic suitability, lacking the critical dry-season precipitation (20–80 mm) required by the species. Our findings indicate climate change will significantly expand <i>G. fuscipes</i> range, necessitating adaptive, landscape-level vector control strategies. The model definitively excludes Saudi Arabia from the species’ potential range, resolving the three-decade controversy.</p>

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Climate-driven distribution modeling of Glossina fuscipes (Diptera: Glossinidae) in the Afrotropical Region: current patterns, future projections, and implications for presence in the Arabian Peninsula

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月5日

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  • Magdi S. A. El-Hawagry,
  • Rasha Al-Akeel,
  • Abdulrhman Almadiy,
  • Hathal M. Al Dhafer,
  • Mustafa M. Soliman

摘要

The tsetse fly Glossina fuscipes is the primary vector of human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) in Sub-Saharan Africa. While its distribution is confined to Africa, a 1990 report from Saudi Arabia created a long-standing biogeographical puzzle. We used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to project habitat suitability across the Afrotropical Region using 158 spatially filtered G. fuscipes occurrence records and bioclimatic variables generated from TerraClimate data (temperature and precipitation) for the reference period 1982–2023. Variables were selected using variance inflation factor analysis to minimize multicollinearity. Future projections employed an ensemble of five general circulation models under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070. The model demonstrated strong performance (training AUC = 0.940, test AUC = 0.931, TSS = 0.681). Precipitation of the driest period was the dominant predictor, followed by altitude, annual precipitation, and mean temperature of the driest quarter, emphasizing critical dependence on year-round moisture availability. Currently, G. fuscipes occupies 3.64 million km2 (16.7% of Africa) concentrated in East and Central Africa. Climate projections reveal substantial expansion: 38–62% by 2050 and 47–95% by 2070, with minimal contraction (1.08–3.48%). Under SSP5-8.5, suitable habitat could nearly double by 2070, reaching 7.03 million km2. The Arabian Peninsula shows no climatic suitability, lacking the critical dry-season precipitation (20–80 mm) required by the species. Our findings indicate climate change will significantly expand G. fuscipes range, necessitating adaptive, landscape-level vector control strategies. The model definitively excludes Saudi Arabia from the species’ potential range, resolving the three-decade controversy.