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<p>As China's most critical coal production base, the Yellow River Basin faces pressing scientific challenges in elucidating the impacts of coal mining on regional ecological quality under its ecological protection and high-quality development strategy. This study systematically evaluates spatiotemporal evolution patterns and threshold effects of ecological quality across four representative mining areas during 2000–2023, employing an integrated XGBoost-SHAP model combined with cold/hot spot analysis, trend detection, and coefficient of variation methods. Key findings include (1) basin-wide ecological quality demonstrates fluctuating improvement (20% area expansion in enhanced zones); (2) ecological degradation cores are concentrated between the Ordos Plateau and Helan Mountains, with 50.1% of areas maintaining stability versus 32.3% exhibiting significant fluctuations; (3) soil moisture dominates basin-wide influences (48%), followed by population density (10%) and evapotranspiration (8%), while key drivers vary regionally (GDP in Shendong, elevation in Ningdong, population in Huanglong, evapotranspiration in Jincheng); and (4) ecosystem sustainability ranks as Huanglong &gt; Jincheng &gt; Shendong &gt; Ningdong, necessitating differentiated restoration strategies considering hydrothermal conditions, pollution levels, and topographic constraints.</p>

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Spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces analysis of ecological environment quality in mining areas of the Yellow River Basin—interpretable modeling based on XGBoost-SHAP

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月22日

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  • Houtian Zhang,
  • Hidong Wang,
  • Yiheng Jiao

摘要

As China's most critical coal production base, the Yellow River Basin faces pressing scientific challenges in elucidating the impacts of coal mining on regional ecological quality under its ecological protection and high-quality development strategy. This study systematically evaluates spatiotemporal evolution patterns and threshold effects of ecological quality across four representative mining areas during 2000–2023, employing an integrated XGBoost-SHAP model combined with cold/hot spot analysis, trend detection, and coefficient of variation methods. Key findings include (1) basin-wide ecological quality demonstrates fluctuating improvement (20% area expansion in enhanced zones); (2) ecological degradation cores are concentrated between the Ordos Plateau and Helan Mountains, with 50.1% of areas maintaining stability versus 32.3% exhibiting significant fluctuations; (3) soil moisture dominates basin-wide influences (48%), followed by population density (10%) and evapotranspiration (8%), while key drivers vary regionally (GDP in Shendong, elevation in Ningdong, population in Huanglong, evapotranspiration in Jincheng); and (4) ecosystem sustainability ranks as Huanglong > Jincheng > Shendong > Ningdong, necessitating differentiated restoration strategies considering hydrothermal conditions, pollution levels, and topographic constraints.