Climate-driven landscape attrition and isolation threaten the persistence of Jerdon’s babbler (Chrysomma altirostre) and Marsh babbler (Pellorneum palustre) in the floodplains of the Brahmaputra–Meghna River Basin
摘要
Biodiversity is being lost at unprecedented rates globally, primarily due to climate change and anthropogenic activities in recent decades. This crisis is particularly evident in the Himalayan floodplains, where the decline of grassland habitats threatens several grassland-dependent species. Among them are the threatened Jerdon’s babbler (Chrysomma altirostre) and Marsh babbler (Pellorneum palustre), two poorly studied taxa restricted to riverine grasslands. This study employed ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to identify suitable habitats for both species under present and future climatic scenarios. In addition, spatial changes in habitat configuration and corridor connectivity were assessed. The results revealed that C. altirostre currently occupies approximately 10,449 km2 and P. palustre about 17,566 km2 of suitable habitat within the Brahmaputra–Meghna (BM) study river basin, representing only a fraction of the basin and of their IUCN extent of occurrence. Alarmingly, projections indicate severe reductions exceeding 60% in suitable habitat for both species under future climate scenarios. These declines are strongly associated with sensitivity to climatic and hydrological variables, suggesting that shifts in these factors will have profound consequences for their persistence. Moreover, future scenarios predict significant habitat fragmentation and reduced connectivity, compounding extinction risks of both species due to climate change. These findings highlight the urgent need for broad-scale grassland restoration and conservation strategies to mitigate habitat loss, safeguard connectivity, and secure the long-term survival of these threatened taxa, along with other floodplain grassland biodiversity of the region.