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<p>The ecological and health risks posed by Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, and Cr in road-deposited sediments (RDS) were assessed for four urban road types in Beijing after 53 consecutive dry days. The evaluation integrated Monte Carlo simulation with the geo-accumulation index, potential ecological risk index, and health risk models. The results demonstrated that concentrations of all investigated heavy metals in RDS exceeded local soil background values in Beijing, with enrichment multiples reaching at least 16-fold for Zn, Pb, and Cd, and approaching tenfold for Cu and Cr. Monte Carlo simulation characterized the probability distributions of ecological and health risks and revealed significant differences in risk levels of heavy metals in RDS among different road types, even within the same pollution category. The probability of reaching a serious ecological risk was 92.00% for RDS from roads experiencing the most intensive traffic flow, and 83.22% for RDS from roads with infrequent sweeping, compared with 51.90% and 63.45% for RDS from lightly trafficked roads. Cd was identified as the dominant contributor to ecological risk in RDS from the four roads, accounting for 75.05%, 73.42%, 77.22%, and 81.07% of the overall risk, respectively. Both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks were detected for heavy metals in all RDS, with higher risks observed in adults than in children. Cr was the primary contributor to health risk in RDS, with contribution rates exceeding 79%. Targeted management strategies for RDS by Monte Carlo simulation were proposed for different road types to reduce ecological and health risks from heavy metals.</p>

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Heavy metal risk assessment of 53-day accumulated road-deposited sediments from different roads in Beijing using Monte Carlo simulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月14日

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  • Xiaoli Du,
  • Rongying Jiang,
  • Wenqian Sun,
  • Dianxi Tian,
  • Zedong Zheng

摘要

The ecological and health risks posed by Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, and Cr in road-deposited sediments (RDS) were assessed for four urban road types in Beijing after 53 consecutive dry days. The evaluation integrated Monte Carlo simulation with the geo-accumulation index, potential ecological risk index, and health risk models. The results demonstrated that concentrations of all investigated heavy metals in RDS exceeded local soil background values in Beijing, with enrichment multiples reaching at least 16-fold for Zn, Pb, and Cd, and approaching tenfold for Cu and Cr. Monte Carlo simulation characterized the probability distributions of ecological and health risks and revealed significant differences in risk levels of heavy metals in RDS among different road types, even within the same pollution category. The probability of reaching a serious ecological risk was 92.00% for RDS from roads experiencing the most intensive traffic flow, and 83.22% for RDS from roads with infrequent sweeping, compared with 51.90% and 63.45% for RDS from lightly trafficked roads. Cd was identified as the dominant contributor to ecological risk in RDS from the four roads, accounting for 75.05%, 73.42%, 77.22%, and 81.07% of the overall risk, respectively. Both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks were detected for heavy metals in all RDS, with higher risks observed in adults than in children. Cr was the primary contributor to health risk in RDS, with contribution rates exceeding 79%. Targeted management strategies for RDS by Monte Carlo simulation were proposed for different road types to reduce ecological and health risks from heavy metals.