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<p>Climate change and biological invasions are major drivers of global biodiversity loss. <i>Ageratum conyzoides</i> L. is a highly aggressive invader, yet its ecological risks and potential range dynamics in India remain insufficiently quantified. To assess its future invasion potential, we applied an ensemble species distribution modelling approach (BIOMOD2 in R), integrating random forest, artificial neural networks, and generalized linear models. Bioclimatic predictors were obtained from CMIP6-based climate projections across four SSP pathways (WorldClim v2.1). Model performance was evaluated using multiple evaluation metrics including TSS, ROC, and Kappa to ensure robustness. Precipitation-related predictors, including&#xa0;precipitation of the wettest month (BIO13; 500–1000&#xa0;mm), and precipitation seasonality (BIO15; 40–60%) were identified as dominant drivers of distribution. High-suitability areas (≥ 70% probability), the potential invasion-risk zones, are projected to concentrate in the Western Ghats and the Himalayan foothills, with marked upslope expansion, and to extend into the Eastern Ghats and Central Highlands. Least-suitable habitats (climate refugial zones, ~ 2.40 million km<sup>2</sup> during 1970–2000) are projected to shrink substantially by 2100, to ~ 1.82 million km<sup>2</sup> (SSP1-2.6), ~ 1.45 million km<sup>2</sup> (SSP2-4.5), ~ 1.23 million km<sup>2</sup> (SSP3-7.0), and ~ 1.04 million km<sup>2</sup> (SSP5-8.5). These contractions indicate a broad climatic shift toward conditions favorable for the spread of the&#xa0;species. Overall, climate change is projected to markedly enhance the potential spread of <i>A. conyzoides</i> across India. The findings underscore the need for proactive, region-specific management in biodiversity hotspots such as the Western Ghats and Himalayas, the protection of climatically stable refugia, and the integration of predictive modeling into national invasive-species management policies.</p>

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The impact of climate change on the invasiveness of Ageratum conyzoides (goat weed) in India: implications for biodiversity conservation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月10日

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  • Maya Ammathil Manoharan,
  • Joseph James Erinjery,
  • Suresh Veerankutty

摘要

Climate change and biological invasions are major drivers of global biodiversity loss. Ageratum conyzoides L. is a highly aggressive invader, yet its ecological risks and potential range dynamics in India remain insufficiently quantified. To assess its future invasion potential, we applied an ensemble species distribution modelling approach (BIOMOD2 in R), integrating random forest, artificial neural networks, and generalized linear models. Bioclimatic predictors were obtained from CMIP6-based climate projections across four SSP pathways (WorldClim v2.1). Model performance was evaluated using multiple evaluation metrics including TSS, ROC, and Kappa to ensure robustness. Precipitation-related predictors, including precipitation of the wettest month (BIO13; 500–1000 mm), and precipitation seasonality (BIO15; 40–60%) were identified as dominant drivers of distribution. High-suitability areas (≥ 70% probability), the potential invasion-risk zones, are projected to concentrate in the Western Ghats and the Himalayan foothills, with marked upslope expansion, and to extend into the Eastern Ghats and Central Highlands. Least-suitable habitats (climate refugial zones, ~ 2.40 million km2 during 1970–2000) are projected to shrink substantially by 2100, to ~ 1.82 million km2 (SSP1-2.6), ~ 1.45 million km2 (SSP2-4.5), ~ 1.23 million km2 (SSP3-7.0), and ~ 1.04 million km2 (SSP5-8.5). These contractions indicate a broad climatic shift toward conditions favorable for the spread of the species. Overall, climate change is projected to markedly enhance the potential spread of A. conyzoides across India. The findings underscore the need for proactive, region-specific management in biodiversity hotspots such as the Western Ghats and Himalayas, the protection of climatically stable refugia, and the integration of predictive modeling into national invasive-species management policies.