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<p>This study was conducted in Shaozhuang Town (SZT), an agricultural industrial zone located in Shandong Province. A total of 754 topsoil samples were collected using a high-density sampling strategy. By integrating the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), the Nemerow Composite Risk Index (<i>NCRI</i>), and a health risk assessment (HRA) model, this research quantitatively evaluated ecological and human health risks arising from different pollution sources and identified key anthropogenic factors requiring prioritized control. The results revealed that, with the exception of Cu, the average concentrations of&#xa0;all other analyzed potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in soil surpassed their respective background values, and Hg and Cd exhibited high spatial variability. The PMF model identified five major contamination sources, ranked in descending order of contribution: transportation emissions (35.8%), natural sources (30.4%), agricultural inputs (17.6%), plastic processing (11.8%), and atmospheric deposition (4.4%). Overall ecological risks from these sources were generally low, with a cumulative probability of 63.53% at the low-risk level; plastic processing and atmospheric deposition were the primary contributors. While non-carcinogenic risks across all sources were considered negligible, children were more susceptible than adults, showing a 13.73% probability of noticeable risk. All sources posed non-negligible carcinogenic risks to the exposed populations. Transportation emissions and agricultural inputs were identified as the principal anthropogenic factors driving carcinogenic risks, primarily due to Cr and As. Given the significance of the carcinogenic risks, this study recommends prioritizing transportation and agricultural sources for coordinated pollution control.</p>

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Source-specific ecological and health risks of potentially toxic elements in an agricultural industrialization town, Shandong Province, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月8日

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  • Lu Xia,
  • Qianyu Zhang,
  • Yuqi Zhang,
  • Bing Jiang

摘要

This study was conducted in Shaozhuang Town (SZT), an agricultural industrial zone located in Shandong Province. A total of 754 topsoil samples were collected using a high-density sampling strategy. By integrating the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), the Nemerow Composite Risk Index (NCRI), and a health risk assessment (HRA) model, this research quantitatively evaluated ecological and human health risks arising from different pollution sources and identified key anthropogenic factors requiring prioritized control. The results revealed that, with the exception of Cu, the average concentrations of all other analyzed potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in soil surpassed their respective background values, and Hg and Cd exhibited high spatial variability. The PMF model identified five major contamination sources, ranked in descending order of contribution: transportation emissions (35.8%), natural sources (30.4%), agricultural inputs (17.6%), plastic processing (11.8%), and atmospheric deposition (4.4%). Overall ecological risks from these sources were generally low, with a cumulative probability of 63.53% at the low-risk level; plastic processing and atmospheric deposition were the primary contributors. While non-carcinogenic risks across all sources were considered negligible, children were more susceptible than adults, showing a 13.73% probability of noticeable risk. All sources posed non-negligible carcinogenic risks to the exposed populations. Transportation emissions and agricultural inputs were identified as the principal anthropogenic factors driving carcinogenic risks, primarily due to Cr and As. Given the significance of the carcinogenic risks, this study recommends prioritizing transportation and agricultural sources for coordinated pollution control.