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<p><i>Christensenia aesculifolia</i> (Blume) Maxon, a rare fern with limited populations in the Philippines, faces distress as a result of ongoing human activities coupled with climate change. This study evaluated potential impacts of climate change on the species’ distribution using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach. We incorporated two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) to project future distributions for the periods 2041–2060 (2050s) and 2061–2080 (2070s). The MaxEnt models demonstrated high predictive power and accuracy, with both AUC and TSS values exceeding 0.8. The key predictors included mean temperature of the wettest quarter (% contribution and importance = 44.6 and 25.1) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (% contribution and importance = 36.0 and 14.3) and temperature seasonality (% contribution and importance = 7.7 and 38.3). High climatic suitability areas were identified in Luzon (Benguet, Mindoro, and Sorsogon), Visayas (Samar), and Mindanao (Agusan del norte), accounting for approximately 39,648 km<sup>2</sup> of the total Philippine land area. Projections indicated that climatically stable areas may decline to 53.11–70.55% of the current range, depending on the scenario. The largest range loss (46.88%) is predicted under SSP585 by the 2070s, whereas the lowest (29.45%) is projected for SSP585 in the 2050s. On the other hand, range gains were observed to be highest (87.06%) and lowest (40.34%) under the SSP585 scenario for the 2050s and the SSP245 scenario for the 2050s, respectively. Overall, these findings suggest that the <i>Christensenia aesculifolia</i> range would significantly be altered by climate change. However, there is the potential of the current protected areas (PAs) to offer potential sites for conservation in the future. This study marks the first critical evaluation of a threatened fern species across the Philippine archipelago, delivering crucial information for the establishment of targeted conservation management strategies and the identification of priority conservation areas for species management.</p>

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Identifying current and future distributions of the relict fern Christensenia aesculifolia (Marattiaceae) in the Philippines

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月18日

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  • Marjorie D. delos Angeles,
  • Sirilak Radbouchoom,
  • Boniface K. Ngarega

摘要

Christensenia aesculifolia (Blume) Maxon, a rare fern with limited populations in the Philippines, faces distress as a result of ongoing human activities coupled with climate change. This study evaluated potential impacts of climate change on the species’ distribution using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach. We incorporated two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) to project future distributions for the periods 2041–2060 (2050s) and 2061–2080 (2070s). The MaxEnt models demonstrated high predictive power and accuracy, with both AUC and TSS values exceeding 0.8. The key predictors included mean temperature of the wettest quarter (% contribution and importance = 44.6 and 25.1) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (% contribution and importance = 36.0 and 14.3) and temperature seasonality (% contribution and importance = 7.7 and 38.3). High climatic suitability areas were identified in Luzon (Benguet, Mindoro, and Sorsogon), Visayas (Samar), and Mindanao (Agusan del norte), accounting for approximately 39,648 km2 of the total Philippine land area. Projections indicated that climatically stable areas may decline to 53.11–70.55% of the current range, depending on the scenario. The largest range loss (46.88%) is predicted under SSP585 by the 2070s, whereas the lowest (29.45%) is projected for SSP585 in the 2050s. On the other hand, range gains were observed to be highest (87.06%) and lowest (40.34%) under the SSP585 scenario for the 2050s and the SSP245 scenario for the 2050s, respectively. Overall, these findings suggest that the Christensenia aesculifolia range would significantly be altered by climate change. However, there is the potential of the current protected areas (PAs) to offer potential sites for conservation in the future. This study marks the first critical evaluation of a threatened fern species across the Philippine archipelago, delivering crucial information for the establishment of targeted conservation management strategies and the identification of priority conservation areas for species management.