<p>Groundwater resources in rapidly urbanizing Himalayan cities are under severe stress due to overexploitation and contamination, a situation exacerbated by seismic activity, which disrupts aquifer integrity. This study presents an integrated framework for assessing groundwater potential and quality in Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, a city traversed by active faults, including the Muzaffarabad Thrust Fault and Jhelum Strike-Slip Fault. We combined geospatial, geophysical, and hydrochemical techniques to map resources and identify contamination pathways. Groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) were mapped using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Random Forest (RF) models, with the RF model demonstrating superior predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.86). Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) surveys within these zones revealed aquifer thicknesses ranging from 35–100&#xa0;m and transmissivity values of 0.8–16,948 m<sup>2</sup>/day, validating the north-central and southwestern regions as priority zones. Notably, hydrochemical analysis revealed that while 57% of samples exhibited 'excellent' chemical quality (Ca<sup>2</sup>⁺–Mg<sup>2</sup>⁺–HCO₃⁻ facies), 52% were contaminated with Total Coliforms. Spatial analysis directly links this pervasive biological contamination to inadequate sanitation and, more significantly, to aquifer vulnerability enhanced by tectonic faults, which act as proven conduits for surface pollutants. This study provides quantitative evidence that tectonic activity in the Himalayan foothills is a primary control on groundwater contamination risk. The integrated methodology offers a replicable framework for sustainable water management in tectonically active urban areas globally.</p>

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Integrated assessment of groundwater potential and quality in a seismically active Himalayan city: a case study from Muzaffarabad, Pakistan

  • Raja Dilawar Sajjad,
  • Abrar Niaz,
  • Ahmer Bilal,
  • Muhammad Tayyib Riaz,
  • Ali Yousaf Khan,
  • Xiwu Luan

摘要

Groundwater resources in rapidly urbanizing Himalayan cities are under severe stress due to overexploitation and contamination, a situation exacerbated by seismic activity, which disrupts aquifer integrity. This study presents an integrated framework for assessing groundwater potential and quality in Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, a city traversed by active faults, including the Muzaffarabad Thrust Fault and Jhelum Strike-Slip Fault. We combined geospatial, geophysical, and hydrochemical techniques to map resources and identify contamination pathways. Groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) were mapped using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Random Forest (RF) models, with the RF model demonstrating superior predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.86). Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) surveys within these zones revealed aquifer thicknesses ranging from 35–100 m and transmissivity values of 0.8–16,948 m2/day, validating the north-central and southwestern regions as priority zones. Notably, hydrochemical analysis revealed that while 57% of samples exhibited 'excellent' chemical quality (Ca2⁺–Mg2⁺–HCO₃⁻ facies), 52% were contaminated with Total Coliforms. Spatial analysis directly links this pervasive biological contamination to inadequate sanitation and, more significantly, to aquifer vulnerability enhanced by tectonic faults, which act as proven conduits for surface pollutants. This study provides quantitative evidence that tectonic activity in the Himalayan foothills is a primary control on groundwater contamination risk. The integrated methodology offers a replicable framework for sustainable water management in tectonically active urban areas globally.