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<p>Air pollution has long been a public health concern in South America, now increasingly linked to climate change. In Brazil, this issue is particularly acute in smaller cities with limited monitoring infrastructure. Sinop, located in the Amazon biome of Mato Grosso, exemplifies the intersection of agricultural expansion and environmental vulnerability. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of meteorological conditions, air pollutant levels, and related health impacts in Sinop, focusing on PM<sub>2.5</sub>, PM<sub>10</sub>, and ground-level ozone (O<sub>3</sub>). Using 2022 data, we applied Health Impact Assessment (HIA) via the WHO’s AirQ + tool and simulated temperature rise scenarios through a machine learning model. ur findings indicate that O<sub>3</sub> levels are highly sensitive to meteorological variation, while PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations are projected to increase by up to 50% and 70%, respectively, under extreme warming scenarios. These changes correspond to an estimated increase in non-external mortality of over 90% for PM<sub>2.5</sub> and more than 1000% for PM<sub>10</sub>. Seasonal simulations revealed that the dry season, marked by intense biomass burning, significantly exacerbates pollutant concentrations. These results underscore the growing burden of air pollution on public health in rapidly urbanizing regions. They also highlight the urgent need for enhanced air quality monitoring and climate-adaptive public health strategies in vulnerable areas such as the southern Amazon.</p>

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Amazon’s climate crossroads: analyzing air pollution and health impacts under machine learning-based temperature increase scenarios in Northern Mato Grosso, Brazil

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月14日

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  • Fernando Rafael de Moura,
  • Romina Buffarini,
  • Edison Luis Devos Barlem,
  • Willian Cézar Nadaleti,
  • Helotonio Carvalho,
  • Flávio Manoel Rodrigues da Silva Júnior

摘要

Air pollution has long been a public health concern in South America, now increasingly linked to climate change. In Brazil, this issue is particularly acute in smaller cities with limited monitoring infrastructure. Sinop, located in the Amazon biome of Mato Grosso, exemplifies the intersection of agricultural expansion and environmental vulnerability. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of meteorological conditions, air pollutant levels, and related health impacts in Sinop, focusing on PM2.5, PM10, and ground-level ozone (O3). Using 2022 data, we applied Health Impact Assessment (HIA) via the WHO’s AirQ + tool and simulated temperature rise scenarios through a machine learning model. ur findings indicate that O3 levels are highly sensitive to meteorological variation, while PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations are projected to increase by up to 50% and 70%, respectively, under extreme warming scenarios. These changes correspond to an estimated increase in non-external mortality of over 90% for PM2.5 and more than 1000% for PM10. Seasonal simulations revealed that the dry season, marked by intense biomass burning, significantly exacerbates pollutant concentrations. These results underscore the growing burden of air pollution on public health in rapidly urbanizing regions. They also highlight the urgent need for enhanced air quality monitoring and climate-adaptive public health strategies in vulnerable areas such as the southern Amazon.