<p>Accurate and uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal modeling of wind speed fields is essential for optimizing wind energy operations and identifying suitable turbine deployment sites. This study proposes a data-driven generative framework based on a 3D-CNN combined with a <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>β</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>-Variational Autoencoder (<InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>β</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>-VAE) to produce probabilistic 1-hour-ahead wind field forecasts over the Korean Peninsula. The five-year ERA5 dataset is split into three years for training and two subsequent years for validation and testing. Three-dimensional convolutions are used to capture both spatial and temporal dependencies, and the parameter <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>β</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> controls the trade-off between reconstruction fidelity and latent space regularization. A sensitivity analysis indicates that <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta = 0.01\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>β</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>0.01</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> provides a favorable balance for forecasting. Using Root Mean Square Error, Continuous Ranked Probability Score, Variogram Score, and Probability Integral Transform-based diagnostics, we evaluated the trained model and found that it reproduces the ensemble statistics and spatial dependence structures of the observed wind fields. The model also yields reasonably well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts. Compared to the ConvLSTM <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>β</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>-VAE and 2D-CNN <InlineEquation ID="IEq8"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>β</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>-VAE baselines, the 3D-CNN <InlineEquation ID="IEq9"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>β</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>-VAE provides comparable skill at a 1-hour lead time and noticeably better probabilistic forecast performance and spatial consistency at longer lead times. These results suggest that the 3D-CNN <InlineEquation ID="IEq10"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>β</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>-VAE could serve as a scalable tool for offshore wind energy resource assessment and short-term turbine operation planning.</p>

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Spatiotemporal modeling of wind speed fields over the Korean Peninsula using 3D-CNN and \(\beta\)-VAE for probabilistic forecasting

  • Seung Jee Yang,
  • Jaehong Jeong

摘要

Accurate and uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal modeling of wind speed fields is essential for optimizing wind energy operations and identifying suitable turbine deployment sites. This study proposes a data-driven generative framework based on a 3D-CNN combined with a \(\beta\) β -Variational Autoencoder ( \(\beta\) β -VAE) to produce probabilistic 1-hour-ahead wind field forecasts over the Korean Peninsula. The five-year ERA5 dataset is split into three years for training and two subsequent years for validation and testing. Three-dimensional convolutions are used to capture both spatial and temporal dependencies, and the parameter \(\beta\) β controls the trade-off between reconstruction fidelity and latent space regularization. A sensitivity analysis indicates that \(\beta = 0.01\) β = 0.01 provides a favorable balance for forecasting. Using Root Mean Square Error, Continuous Ranked Probability Score, Variogram Score, and Probability Integral Transform-based diagnostics, we evaluated the trained model and found that it reproduces the ensemble statistics and spatial dependence structures of the observed wind fields. The model also yields reasonably well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts. Compared to the ConvLSTM \(\beta\) β -VAE and 2D-CNN \(\beta\) β -VAE baselines, the 3D-CNN \(\beta\) β -VAE provides comparable skill at a 1-hour lead time and noticeably better probabilistic forecast performance and spatial consistency at longer lead times. These results suggest that the 3D-CNN \(\beta\) β -VAE could serve as a scalable tool for offshore wind energy resource assessment and short-term turbine operation planning.