<p>The relative abundance of summer flounder (<i>Paralichthys dentatus</i>) differs over space and time with changes in environmental factors, such as depth, bottom temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) and bottom salinity. We use the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach to account for the random effects arising from either over-dispersion, or spatial and temporal autocorrelation. We explore how the different assumptions in the spatial temporal models result in varying model predictions. The results indicate that the distribution of summer flounder is correlated with depth, regional increases in bottom temperature, SST and bottom salinity. We find that in the Fall relative abundance increased 10–15% with a <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="10651_2025_647_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="17" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$1^{\circ }$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mn>1</mn> <mo>∘</mo> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>C increase in SST, by 12% with each <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="10651_2025_647_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="17" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$1^{\circ }$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mn>1</mn> <mo>∘</mo> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>C increase in bottom temperature and 3–4% with each meter increase in depth across all models. In the spring, relative abundance increased by about 30% with each <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="10651_2025_647_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="17" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$1^{\circ }$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mn>1</mn> <mo>∘</mo> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>C increase in SST with an upper preferred temperature between <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="10651_2025_647_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="15" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="62" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$10-20^{\circ }$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>10</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msup> <mn>20</mn> <mo>∘</mo> </msup> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>C. Our study also shows that models that include spatio-temporally correlated variables can inadvertently be over parameterized when including higher order interaction terms between spatial and temporal random effects. This can lead to inflated variances in the estimates and predictions as well as lengthening model convergence times. Therefore, care should be taken in identifying the level of model complexity given the indirect implications of these results on fisheries management and marine ecology.</p>

Estimating effects of ocean environmental conditions on summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) distribution

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2025年2月18日

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Samar Deen,
Verena Jauss,
Patrick J. Sullivan

摘要

The relative abundance of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) differs over space and time with changes in environmental factors, such as depth, bottom temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) and bottom salinity. We use the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach to account for the random effects arising from either over-dispersion, or spatial and temporal autocorrelation. We explore how the different assumptions in the spatial temporal models result in varying model predictions. The results indicate that the distribution of summer flounder is correlated with depth, regional increases in bottom temperature, SST and bottom salinity. We find that in the Fall relative abundance increased 10–15% with a $1^{\circ }$ $1^{\circ}$ C increase in SST, by 12% with each $1^{\circ }$ $1^{\circ}$ C increase in bottom temperature and 3–4% with each meter increase in depth across all models. In the spring, relative abundance increased by about 30% with each $1^{\circ }$ $1^{\circ}$ C increase in SST with an upper preferred temperature between $10-20^{\circ }$ $10 - 20^{\circ}$ C. Our study also shows that models that include spatio-temporally correlated variables can inadvertently be over parameterized when including higher order interaction terms between spatial and temporal random effects. This can lead to inflated variances in the estimates and predictions as well as lengthening model convergence times. Therefore, care should be taken in identifying the level of model complexity given the indirect implications of these results on fisheries management and marine ecology.