Scholarlink

<p>This paper presents a practical guide for developing a nowcasting model for GDP growth. We employ a dynamic factor model to generate backcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of Dutch GDP in pseudo real-time. We evaluate forecast errors across a range of modeling alternatives, including data choice, transformations, outlier correction and model specification. The optimal combination of these alternatives outperforms standard benchmarks. Additionally, we demonstrate how to derive forecast contributions and assess the impact of new data releases, offering policymakers valuable insights for interpreting GDP nowcasts. Finally, we collect GDP nowcasts from professional forecasters and show they were relatively accurate during the COVID crisis.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Designing a Nowcasting Model for GDP Growth: A Practical Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月19日

查看全文
  • Mick van Rooijen,
  • Dorinth W. van Dijk,
  • Jasper M. de Winter

摘要

This paper presents a practical guide for developing a nowcasting model for GDP growth. We employ a dynamic factor model to generate backcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of Dutch GDP in pseudo real-time. We evaluate forecast errors across a range of modeling alternatives, including data choice, transformations, outlier correction and model specification. The optimal combination of these alternatives outperforms standard benchmarks. Additionally, we demonstrate how to derive forecast contributions and assess the impact of new data releases, offering policymakers valuable insights for interpreting GDP nowcasts. Finally, we collect GDP nowcasts from professional forecasters and show they were relatively accurate during the COVID crisis.